Wednesday, August 9, 2017

BP Hits A NatGas Gusher; Petrobras: Off-Shore Oil Can Be Produced For $8/Bbl -- Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- August 9, 2017


Later, 7:02 p.m. Central Time: see comments below.
A reader very knowledgeable in US natural gas takes issue with two EIA prognostications. First: he disagrees that US natural gas demand will be less this year than last year. He argues that the last two winters have been unseasonably warm; this winter is forecast to be much closer to the norm, i.e., colder. If colder has predicted, then natural gas usage will increase for the 2017 - 2018 winter.

If natural gas usage increases this winter, it is very likely, the reader argues, then increased natural gas imports from Canada could offset the exports of natural gas from the southern states which might delay the US being a net exporter of natural gas later this year.

To see the reader's argument and his links to support his arguments, see the comments.
Original Post

BP reports a gusher: the Mancos play; from Bloomberg via Rigzone --
While other natural gas drillers are paying a premium for acreage in prized U.S. shale formations across Texas and Pennsylvania, BP Plc may have just found a gem in a largely ignored corner of New Mexico.
The London-based oil giant started producing from a gas well in New Mexico’s Mancos shale that could turn out to be a “significant new source of U.S. natural gas supply,” according to a statement Monday. The well averaged 12.9 million cubic feet a day in its first month, the highest output achieved in the San Juan Basin in 14 years.
Active rigs:

Active Rigs563373193183

RBN Energy: new US cracker demand, exports will strain ethane supply, part 2.

OPEC: apparently OPEC expects laggards to comply more fully with oil cut pact.

Natural gas: US natural gas output will be up in 2017; still below the 2015 record -- EIA.

Petrobras: Brazil's promising pre-salt offshore wells costs about $8 per bbls.

Brazil -- On-Shore Shale Oil And Gas
A Long Way Off -- If Ever

Warning: this link will down a PDF from the EIA on your desktop --

EIA assessment of Brazil, 2015, beginning on page 9 of the 29-page document at the link:
  • most of Brazil's most prolific petroleum basins lie offshore
  • Brazil has 18 mostly undeveloped and lightly explored sedimentary basins onshort
  • three of these 18 bases have produced significant conventional oil and gas from demonstrated source rock systems
  • the main target is the Devonian (Frasnian) marine black shale which is extensively developed in the three structurally simple basins but has relatively modest TOC (2 - 2.5%)
  • several other basins in Brazil may have shale gas and oil potential but lack proven source rock systems, are thermally immature, and/or lack sufficient public data for assessment
  • Brazil's risked, technically recoverable shale gas and shale oil resources in the three main basins have an estimated 245 Tcf and 5.4 billion bbls
  • risked, in-place shale resources are estimated to be 1,279 Tcf of shale gas and 134 billion bbls of shale oil
  • no shale-focused exploration leasing of drilling has been announced to date in Brazil
From the linked PDF, this graphic to help understand "definitions":

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