Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; Neither Will Show Any Production Data -- November 30, 2021

Link here.

Re-posting. This was from last Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, four days ago, November 26, 2021:

I'm tracking this for a reason. I think it becomes a bigger story than many folks might realize now. Exhibits A, B, and C:

Overnight -- at the link -- and currently -- electricity rates are again spiking in ISO NE, and are currently in the "orange," the 7th decile, $151 - $200 / MWh. Whenever things are going "right" (rarely) rates can get as low as $20 / MWh or even go negative if the wind is blowing and the sun is shining. But lately ...

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A Reminder: GasBuddy Link

Link here.

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End of the Line

One of the FBI's most wanted fugitives for fifty-two years, died of natural causes in an affluent suburb north of Boston. Fascinating story. Link here. 

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Euless

Since about the year 2000 we've lived in Texas. First, San Antonio, and then we moved to Grapevine, TX, in 2013, which we thought might be the best suburb in Texas. Then, due to the Texas freeze, water pipes freezing in our apartment complex (we were relatively inconvenienced) we moved to an apartment complex in .... Euless, TX, just a half-mile from where we had been living.

Euless is about a five-minute drive west of the Dallas-Ft Worth International Airport (DFW), and near the tip of the isosceles triangle formed by Grapevine to the north, Dallas to the southeast, and Ft Worth to the southwest. 

This morning, I see that a reader has sent me this article: Euless is the best place in the country to live, according to The New York Times.  

I'll have to fact check this, of course, but the article states: 

That's according to "Everyone’s Moving to Texas. Here’s Why," a new opinion column from the Times' Farhad Manjoo, who looked at a lot of data and applied a strict set of parameters to determine where would be the best place in the country to move to. Seven of the top 10 locations are in Texas, and all of those Texan cities are in North Texas.

Wow, I hope New Yorkers continue to move to Florida. Of course, Jerry Jeff Walker was a former New Yorker.

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As They Say

History may not repeat itself but it certainly does seem to rhyme. 

It looks like folks are going back to look at the "history" of March, 2020, with the first major lock downs due to Covid.

Oil is back to testing the $68-lows.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 

$68.11	11/30/2021	11/30/2020	11/30/2019	11/30/2018	11/30/2017
Active Rigs	31	14	57	66	54

Tuesday, November 30, 2021: 42 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 296 for the year:

• 38268, conf, CLR, Jensen 8-8HSL,
• 38236, conf, CLR, Mittlestadt 10-17HSL1,  

RBN Energy: NGL markets have been up, down, all around. What will winter and 2022 bring?

If there was ever a year that proves NGLs march to the beat of a different drummer, 2021 was it.  Compared to pre-pandemic volumes, production is up, not down. It’s the same story for exports. Price behavior has been even more extraordinary. We’ve seen startling counter-seasonal price swings in propane and butane markets. Ethane has been dancing to the tune of volatile natural gas prices. The wackiness has even extended to natural gasoline, which this summer enjoyed seven weeks as the preferred feedstock for U.S. flexible steam crackers. Heck, it’s not even winter yet. And 2022 is likely to be every bit as chaotic. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a blog series discussing recent developments in NGL markets and take a look at what lies ahead.

To make sense of what is going on, it is always best to start at the beginning — and that is production.  Specifically, NGL production from natural gas processing. Some NGLs are produced at refineries, but those volumes are relatively small and have not changed materially over the years. As noted above, NGL production is up during 2021. In fact, average 2021 NGL production is about 10% higher than in pre-COVID 2019. That compares with crude oil production, which is down about 10% since 2019, and natural gas, which is flat over the same period.