Updates
Later, 11:01 p.m. CDT: wow. I love this. About two hours after writing the note below, this is the top story over at The Wall Street Journal -- they must be reading the blog also. Link here.
Before we turn to Apple, I could be wrong on my thinking on this, but it's my worldview that the global economy imploded at the end of the first quarter last year, near the end of March, 2020. If so, most of the first quarter's activity (2020) had already been determined. If that is correct, then this quarter, 1Q21, will be the "last" quarter that can really be compared to the BC (before Covid) economy. The next four calendar quarters (2Q21 through 1Q22) will be AC/AD quarters (after Covid/after Donald).
I think going forward (calendar 2Q21+) one will need to compare those calendar quarters with 2019's calendar quarters and not the 2020 calendar quarters.
Obviously the global pandemic is nowhere "done," but two of the leading
global economies, China and the US, appear more than ready to press on.
It does not appear the EU will get its act together before the end of this calendar year, and India will have an effect on the energy markets but perhaps not so much on the non-energy sectors. It looks like the UK might do better than expected, but I'm certainly not betting that Japan will do so.
And, on top of all that, the US federal government is still looking forward to spending more money.
Saudi Arabia is relevant to this discussion only because of its impact on the energy market. And after seeing the February foreign exchange reserves for Saudi it reinforces my view that Saudi needs a) a strong global economy; and, b) $70-oil (or as the experts say, "7-handle oil"). And tonight? Oil is down across the board. So, with that, let's turn to Apple.
Oh, by the way, before I forget, this is a "great read." I posted this earlier but it's important enough to post again:
Now, for a historical perspective: the US economy in the 1920's, from the Economic History Association. Unless I missed it, the site does not provide a date, but based on the citations, it was probably written in 2005 or later.
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Apple, Inc. Earnings Projections
In a note like this with lots of numbers and lots of estimates and lots of analysts, there will be typographical and content errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Apple, Inc., reported after the market closes on Wednesday, April 28, 2021, for quarter ending March 31, 2021, Apple's 2Q21.
Over at "Earnings Central" this has been posted:
April 28, 2021: after market closes, AAPL will report. The Street, April 19, 2021:
- earnings history;
- for the quarter one year ago (the pandemic had not quite kicked in)
- revenue: $58.3 billion
- earnings: 64 cents
- expectations by analysts for this quarter (2Q21)
- 1.32* 58.3 (2Q20) = $76.956 billion revenue -- estimate for 2Q21
- 1.53* 64 (2Q20) = $0.98 /share EPS-- estimate for 2Q21
- expectations by analysts for this quarter (2Q21)
- revenue: $76.710 billion
- EPS: 99 cents; Yahoo!Finance: 98 cents;
- estimates: Wall Street analyst estimates are through the roof: a y/y increase in revenues and earnings per share of 32% and 53%, respectively;
- Apple's PC sales rising by an astounding 50% or more, over easy-2020 comps;
- iPad will face an uphill battle; across the industry tablet sales are expected to fall double digits this quarter; Apple will do better than the average;
- iPhone: will face easy comps this time; the comparable period in a a Covid-19 2020 which saw revenues land flat, the worst top-line performance since early 2019
- total smartphone shipments are projected to grow by an impressive 50% with Apple claiming an unusual top vendor status over the past half year
- so bottom line, looking for numbers at least better than, to keep the numbers easy to remember (rounded up):
- EPS: $1.00/share
- revenue: $77 billion
Comments:
- if Apple, Inc., pulls off $1.00/share EPS (link here):
- it will beat their best quarter (the first quarter) in 2018;
- it will beat every quarter AAPL has ever reported except for their best quarter (the first quarter) of each year
- it will literally "hit it out of the ballpark"
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