Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Hess With Six New Antelope Creek Permits; XTO Reports Two Dry Kulczyk Wells -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48481B.

Geo-politics: I have never been more excited than I am now about the current state of geo-politics. We will come back to this later, I'm sure. 

Gaza: pending.

Ukraine: pending.

Norway: pending.

Trump appointees: pending.

DEI is dead: exhibit A -- google announced today, that going forward, it will only hire the best and the brightest regardless of an applicant's immutable features. It's hard to believe it took "a Trump" to make that happen. 

Elon Musk, DOGE, and AI: FAA next

Solar: not on my bingo card today. Scheduled to close in 2039 -- about fifteen years from now-- two of three units to be closed immediately and operator looking to close the third of three units. Even the Sierra Club didn't like this project. Abject failure. Solar farms are expected to last forever -- after all, they're cheap and the fuel source is free. Oil wells last longer than this. My hunch: the depreciation / tax credits expired. Time to initiate a new farm with new depreciation, tax credits, tax incentives.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.03.

Number of rigs: 34.

Seven new permits, #41583k - #41589, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (6); Empire North Dakota
  • Fields: Antelope Creek (McKenzie); Starbuck-Madison Unit (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
    • Empire North Dakota has a permit for a Raptor 1 well, lot 2, section 1-160-79;
      • to be sited 370 FNL and 1350 FEL;
    • Hess has permits for five BW-IDA wells and one BW-JLP wells, NWSW 13-149-101, 
      • to be sited 2417 / 2579 FSL and 821 / 935 FWL; four of the wells are 3-section wells; and two of the wells are 6-section wells.

Two producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

  • 36834, 3,241, XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12C, Williams County;
  • 36835, 3,634, XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12F, Williams County;

Two dry holes reported:

  • 37226, dry, XTO, Kulczyk 43X-17TFXG2, Mountrail County;
  • 37664, dry, XTO, Kulczyk 43X-17BXC, Mountrail County;

Winter Not Yet Over In New England -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48480ISONE.

Dr Phil: earlier this week Groundhog Phil predicted six more weeks of winter. 

A shout-out to Middlebury College!


 

 

New NGL Pipes, Fracs and LPG Export Terminal Give MPLX, ONEOK What They've Wanted -- RBN Energy -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48479B.

RBN Energynew NGL pipes, fracks, and LPG export terminal give MPLX, ONEOK what they've wanted. Archived.

It finally happened. And it’s a very big deal for MPLX and ONEOK, both of which have been working for years to become full-fledged members of the elite “NGL wellhead-to-water club.” But the companies’ announcements that MPLX will build two fractionators at the terminus of a new NGL pipeline from Sweeny to Texas City and that ONEOK and MPLX will joint build a new LPG export terminal nearby (and a new purity-product pipeline between Mont Belvieu and the terminal) doesn’t just fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle they’ve been assembling. The plans also will give Gulf Coast LPG exporters the additional capacity they desperately need and — no small thing — create another fractionation hub. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what MPLX and ONEOK are planning and why it matters.

In a Drill Down Report in late 2023, we described the NGL networks owned and operated by the four large midstream companies (Enterprise Products Partners, Energy Transfer, Targa Resources and Phillips 66) that currently provide wellhead-to-water services — everything from gas processing plants in the Permian and other plays to long-haul NGL pipelines to the Gulf Coast to fractionation plants (almost all of them in Mont Belvieu) and export terminals for purity NGL products. As we said then, “That start-to-finish management of the NGL stream provides a number of important benefits — chief among them, the ability to operate with extraordinary efficiency, collect fees from shippers each step of the way, and feed pipelines, fractionators, storage and export terminals along the network’s value chain.”

In several RBN blogs and Analyst Insights since then, we’ve discussed the need for more NGL export capacity and plans for projects to meet those needs. We've also looked at plans by ONEOK and MPLX to expand the NGL side of their businesses, many of them aimed at enhancing the companies’ operational optionality and wellhead-to-water capabilities.

Two recent ONEOK deals are most relevant to our discussion today. First, in June 2024, ONEOK closed on the purchase of 450 miles of NGL and other liquids pipelines in the greater Houston area from Easton Energy and announced plans to connect the NGL system to ONEOK’s Mont Belvieu assets. Then, in a two-step deal — the latter part of which closed on January 30 — ONEOK acquired EnLink Midstream, which, among other things, gave ONEOK 1.6 Bcf/d of gas processing capacity in the Permian. ONEOK already owned a host of valuable NGL-related assets, including several gas processing plants in the Rockies and Midcontinent; a handful of NGL pipeline systems (West Texas NGL, Elk Creek and Bakken NGL among them); more than 1 MMb/d of fractionation capacity (more than two-thirds of it in Mont Belvieu, where it owns six fracs); and 30 MMbbl of salt-cavern storage capacity for NGLs.

BANGL Pipeline, Sweeny and Texas City Developments

Figure 1. BANGL Pipeline, Sweeny and Texas City Developments. Source: RBN

TotalEnergies To Increase Dividend By 7% -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48478B.

Focus on dividends: TotalEnergies -- to increase its dividend by 7%.


WTI Contines To Fall; TTE Increases Dividend By 7%; Update On Oneok -- RBN Energy -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48477B.

Super Bowl: news cycle for others will be put on hold for the next several days as all attention turns to the Super Bowl. There will be some exceptions. As for the blog, it continues unabated. I'm lovin' it.

Trump: incredibly refreshing to have a president that talks to the American public 24/7.  

Equinor: Nordstream 1 natural gas pipeline completely destroyed. 

AMD's earnings: why is x so much better reporting these numbers than mainstream media? Link here. AMD to to partner with MSFT on "copilot."

Disney earnings: link here.

EV wrap:

Ford: will sell these things at a loss to maintain leadership. Link hereFrom x.

January, 2025, sales in the U.S. fell 6.3% owing to lower demand for its internal combustion (ICE) vehicles, the company said on Monday.

The automaker sold a total of 142,944 units - including ICE and electrified vehicles - in January, compared to the 152,617 it sold a year ago.
Sales of its electrified vehicles, which include both electric and hybrid vehicles, rose about 20% to 18,961 units.

Honda - Nissaan: merger deal appears to be "off."

Focus on dividends: TotalEnergies -- to increase its dividend by 7%.

Coal, link here:


***********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.83.

New wells:

  • Friday, February 7, 2025: 8 for the month, 54 for the quarter, 54 for the year,
    • 40438, conf, Enerplus, Strength 150-94-06B-18H,
  • Thursday, February 6, 2025: 7 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 53 for the year, 
    • 40456, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living TR-156-98-2017H-4,
    • 39390, conf, CLR, Goodson 2-21H,
  • Wednesday, February 5, 2025: 5 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year,
    • None.

RBN Energynew NGL pipes, fracks, and LPG export terminal give MPLX, ONEOK what they've wanted. Archived.

It finally happened. And it’s a very big deal for MPLX and ONEOK, both of which have been working for years to become full-fledged members of the elite “NGL wellhead-to-water club.” But the companies’ announcements that MPLX will build two fractionators at the terminus of a new NGL pipeline from Sweeny to Texas City and that ONEOK and MPLX will joint build a new LPG export terminal nearby (and a new purity-product pipeline between Mont Belvieu and the terminal) doesn’t just fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle they’ve been assembling. The plans also will give Gulf Coast LPG exporters the additional capacity they desperately need and — no small thing — create another fractionation hub. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what MPLX and ONEOK are planning and why it matters.

In a Drill Down Report in late 2023, we described the NGL networks owned and operated by the four large midstream companies (Enterprise Products Partners, Energy Transfer, Targa Resources and Phillips 66) that currently provide wellhead-to-water services — everything from gas processing plants in the Permian and other plays to long-haul NGL pipelines to the Gulf Coast to fractionation plants (almost all of them in Mont Belvieu) and export terminals for purity NGL products. As we said then, “That start-to-finish management of the NGL stream provides a number of important benefits — chief among them, the ability to operate with extraordinary efficiency, collect fees from shippers each step of the way, and feed pipelines, fractionators, storage and export terminals along the network’s value chain.”

In several RBN blogs and Analyst Insights since then, we’ve discussed the need for more NGL export capacity and plans for projects to meet those needs. We've also looked at plans by ONEOK and MPLX to expand the NGL side of their businesses, many of them aimed at enhancing the companies’ operational optionality and wellhead-to-water capabilities.

Two recent ONEOK deals are most relevant to our discussion today. First, in June 2024, ONEOK closed on the purchase of 450 miles of NGL and other liquids pipelines in the greater Houston area from Easton Energy and announced plans to connect the NGL system to ONEOK’s Mont Belvieu assets. Then, in a two-step deal — the latter part of which closed on January 30 — ONEOK acquired EnLink Midstream, which, among other things, gave ONEOK 1.6 Bcf/d of gas processing capacity in the Permian. ONEOK already owned a host of valuable NGL-related assets, including several gas processing plants in the Rockies and Midcontinent; a handful of NGL pipeline systems (West Texas NGL, Elk Creek and Bakken NGL among them); more than 1 MMb/d of fractionation capacity (more than two-thirds of it in Mont Belvieu, where it owns six fracs); and 30 MMbbl of salt-cavern storage capacity for NGLs.

BANGL Pipeline, Sweeny and Texas City Developments

Figure 1. BANGL Pipeline, Sweeny and Texas City Developments. Source: RBN 

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Six New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- EV Battery Factory Proposed For Arizona Scuttled; CEO Resigns; Remains On Board -- February 4, 2025

Locator: 48473B.

Batteries: proposed battery factory for Arizona scuttled, link here --

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.70.

Active rigs: 35.

Seven new permits, #41576 - #31582, inclusive:

  • Operators: XTO (6); Empire North Dakota
  • Fields: Hofflund (Williams); Starbuck (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
    • Empire North Dakota has a apermit for a Hornbill well, lot 2, section 1-160-79, 
      • to be sited 400 FNL and 1350 FEL;
      • XTO has permits for six HBU Marmon / HBU Marmon Federal wells, SESW 13-154-95,
        • five wells to be sited 697 / 796 FSL and and 2002 / 2114 FWL,  and the sixth well, 400 FNL and 1350 FEL;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36268, 169, BR, George 4A MBH, Mckenzie County;
  • 36269, 169, BR, George 4B TFH, Mckenzie County;
  • 36833, 1,867, XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12G2, Williams County;

A dry hole reported:

  • 32669, dry, Petro-Hunt, Sophus 16-20HS, Divide County;

Just Before The Open, WTI In Free Fall? February 4, 2025

Locator: 48472WTI.

WTI: $71.74. Down another $1.42; down another 1.94%.

Remember, the tariffs on China are still in effect and will be increased.

This did not age well, and it was posted yesterday:

Natural gas? Down a whopping 3.7%. Down over 12 cents and now trading at $3.228, pre-market.

Overall market: animal spirits are back.

********************************
The Book Page

Paris: Secret Gardens, Hidden Places, and Stories of the City of Light, Mary McAuliffe, c. 2023.

Dutch Art in a Global Age, MFA Boston, c. 2024.

Bakken Debt -- February 4, 2025

Locator: 48471B.

Tag: reservation tax MHA  allotees "fee holders" allotments "tribal lands"

From Geoff Simon last week:

Definitions, also from Geoff Simon:

Again, Shay Boloor -- Perhaps My Favorite On "X" Right Now -- February 4, 2025

Locator: 48470INV.

Focus on dividends: since 2022, ASML has increased its dividend 37; another increase was just announced. From $1.585512. to $1.919304, announced, 1/29/25; payable, 5/6/25. 

Focus on dividends: CMCSA increases its dividends from 31 cents to 33 cents per share.

The crash: maps and photos -- The NYT link here. Yesterday, this was still being debated; has the "black box" ended that debate?

The regional jet and the helicopter collided between 300 feet and 350 feet above the ground over the river, according to the investigators who recovered information from the flight data recorders. That places the helicopter more than 100 feet above the height that it was authorized to fly in its particular route near Reagan.
What "no one" is talking about is the number of hours the PIC had. In fact, The NYT is now suggesting night vision goggles were the culprit -- thus already setting the stage to ignore the elephant in the room. From the article:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday that the helicopter was conducting “a required annual night evaluation” flight and was being flown by “a fairly experienced crew” operating with night-vision goggles.

One wonders how a "fairly experienced crew" broke a basic rule -- flying above 200 feet in this corridor. That had nothing to do with NVG. Also, how did two "fairly experienced crew[members" not pay attention to an "imminent collision warning."
Was ATC aware that the helicopter was flying too high? If not, how was that missed?

Climate change? From The NYT this morning (and reported elsewhere):

The Trump administration has warned more than 1,100 E.P.A. employees who work on climate change and other programs that it may fire them.

Taking a page from the president's playbook: my hunch -- Trump will take a serious look at this -- especially as a transition / stopgap measure until Gitmo is up and running, and especially if there's any more push back regarding his plan to place ankle monitors on criminals when there is a lack of prison space to hold them.

AMZN, AAPL, and NVDA: link here.

Palantir AIP. Keep this on your radar scope.

Yesterday, I took advantage of the "dip" and added more technology to my portfolio. Actually, I didn't really take advantage of the "dip" -- I remain fully invested at all times, so when I had enough cash built up to make a meaningful investment, I added more technology to my portfolio. It should be noted that I did not add to my position in any of those three -- AMZN, AAPL, or NVDA -- but it was one of the Mag 7. In hindsight, AMZN might have been the better choice. Whatever. AMZN is next -- next time I add to my technology positions it's likely AMZN will be the one. We'll see.

Once upon a time this would have sounded bizarre: not any more. LOL. Link here. I don't follow Chris so I'm not sure how this ended up on my twitter feed:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   

Taco Tuesday -- That's About All I Can At This Moment -- February 4, 2025

Locator: 48469B.

AI art: link here. Maybe this will be important, but I doubt it.

Texas: relocation update. I think a reader sent me a screenshot taken from this article some days ago. The conclusion reached below may be art of the answer, but certainly oversimplified. The lack of state income taxes in Texas may have had something to do with. Also, the political climate in California vs that of Texas.

The market: it appears the US stock market has simply reset to a "new normal." We'll see. 

VisualCapitalist: a new link. I don't think it's going to be all that great as far as a new link goes but maybe once in awhile something entertaining will pop up.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.97. So much for tariffs / trade war driving up the price of oil. Link here. This certainly didn't age very well -- the story is all of one day old.

New wells:

  • Thursday, February 6, 2025: 7 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 53 for the year, 
    • 40456, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living TR-156-98-2017H-4,
    • 39390, conf, CLR, Goodson 2-21H,
  • Wednesday, February 5, 2025: 5 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year,
    • None.
  • Tuesday, February 4, 2025: 5 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year,
    • 39389, conf, CLR, Dalin 2-16H,

RBN Energy: despite challenges, global shipping eyes shift to lower-carbon bunker fuel.  

After successfully reducing emissions of pollutants like sulfur and nitrogen, the global shipping industry now is focused on ratcheting down — and eventually eliminating — its emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). It’s no easy task. Crude-oil-based bunker like low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gas oil (MGO) are readily available, relatively inexpensive, and pack a lot of energy into each gallon. But GHG-reduction goals are in place, both globally and in the European Union (EU), and shipping companies are taking steps to meet them, initially with more LNG-fueled vessels and later with ships powered by clean methanol, clean ammonia and biofuels. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the shift in bunker fuel consumption since IMO 2020 was implemented five years ago and the efforts to transition to even cleaner shipping fuels through the late 2020s and beyond.

Suriname Sets Its Sights On Becoming Major Oil Supplier With Offshore Boost -- RBN Energy -- February 4, 2025

Locator: 48468SURINAME.

Re-posting:

RBN Energy: today, more recent -- Suriname sets its site on becoming major oil supplier with offshore boost. Archived.

As crude oil production surges off the coast of Guyana, its eastern neighbor, Suriname, has set off on its own mission to become a global oil supplier. With some onshore production active for decades, the tiny South American nation now has its sights set on developing its vast offshore reserves. While there have been some setbacks, its international partners are getting their plans back on track. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a deep dive into what’s ahead for Suriname. 

We previously highlighted how Guyana has been a rising star (see Break My Stride) in the global crude market, even if it’s only a recent entrant. Guyana now has three crude grades to offer markets (see My Guy) since its first major oil discovery just a decade ago. The offshore Stabroek block’s only oil-producing area (yellow-shaded area in Figure 1 below) is churning out more than 650 Mb/d of oil from three projects in the reserve-rich Guyana-Suriname Basin (area within dashed-green line). Owners of these assets want to roughly double that volume by the end of 2027 with three more projects. It’s worth noting that in 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the underexplored areas of the Suriname-Guyana Basin held 13.6 billion barrels of oil and 32 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas. But Guyana isn’t the only country with plans to develop those reserves.

The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block

Figure 1. The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block. Source: RBN

The Guyana-Suriname Basin stretches across three countries on the Atlantic coast of South America: Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. The oil-rich formation has an onshore segment but is predominantly an offshore play. Suriname has been extracting minimal amounts of crude oil from the onshore basin since the 1980s but the former Dutch colony wants to raise its profile as a petroleum supplier with its offshore oil bonanza, mirroring its neighbor’s success. (Suriname’s maritime border indicated by dashed-pink line in Figure 1.)

Suriname’s crude production predates the E&P activities of neighboring Guyana by more than three decades. According to state-owned Staatsolie, which was created in 1980, authorities struck oil in 1965 while trying to drill for water in a schoolyard in the town of Calcutta (yes, it was named after the city in eastern India, now known as Kolkata). The town is in the Saramacca district, west of Suriname’s capital, Paramaribo. But commercial oil production only began 17 years later, in 1982. Supplies were extracted from the Tambaredjo field and the oil grade, Saramacca, was named after the district, with flows starting at 200 b/d. Oil from the field was initially sent on the Saramacca River by barge to Staatsolie’s terminal in Tout Lui Faut, south of the country’s capital. Then, a pipeline was laid to connect the producing area with the terminal.

Monday, February 3, 2025

EVs -- California Sales Sag -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48467EVS.

elektrek: link here. Highly recommend that you check out this site at least once a month. 99% of its articles are focused on EVs. It seems most of the articles highlight how well EVs in general are doing and that EVs in particular are doing very well. 

But, my takeaway, scanning through the site quickly, things are not going all that well in "EV-land." I thought I might be biased or missing something so I wanted to look at the time line: my thesis was that by this time, 2025, we should be a whole farther along the s-shaped curve than we are. So, using AI, I asked when did evs become "thing." I was surprised how AI knew exactly what I was asking: 

Now scanning elektrek this week, some headlines:

  • Tesla's sales drop double digits in California, y/y, the US' biggest EV market;
  • cutting-edge Renault Filante concept hopes to break EV efficiency records -- say what? Renault Filante -- that's where "hope" lies?
  • the newest arrangement between AAA and ChargePoint, according to elektrek "is light  on details. It explains only that the [partnership] covers Level 2 AC charging as well as Level 3 DC-fast-charging stations AAA and CAA members in need of charging infrastructure can find more information at a Chargepoint-AAA website." The website is .... well, awful.
  • Tesla sales tank in Europe;
  • GM is cutting a shift at its EV plant in Mexico because Honda is cutting back on the EV that GM is producing for Honda; say what?

Below is the lead article with my introductory observation / comment:

Not said in the article: calendar years 2023 and 2024 were two of the best years ever for investors in the US stock market -- a lot of folks felt rich -- and yet, expensive EVs not being sold.

From Elektrek

The Two-Week Anniversary -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48466TRUMP.

Breaking:

Is it just me or does it seem like the new president has accomplished a gazillion things in just two weeks?

***************************
Movie Night

Double Indemnity, 1944.

I've watched this several times. Never gets old. 

I find it amazing how such films "stand up" after decades -- 2025 - 1944  = 81 years.

Feels like an Alfred Hitchcock movie. Especially since it includes a train scene, something Hitchcock always seemed to like.

And filmed during WWII. Amazing.

***************************
Movie Night

American Graffiti: Middlebury College. Relationships. Wiki. American Graffiti review, looking back, 5/12/2023.
Relationships, The New York Times: link here.
Apple's FindMe App: link here. The Gen Z generation is overthinking this.

Today Is The Two-Week Anniversary -- Whiting With Three New Permits -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48465B.

Today is the two-week anniversary:

  • DEI is dead
  • Columbia, Venezuela, Panama, Mexico, Canada, and China appear to have gotten the message
  • illegal border crossings have essentially come to a stop
  • both Mexico and Canada promise significant increases in border security and their "actions" can be easily monitored, quantified
  • the worst of the worse criminals illegally in the country will go to Gitmo; new facility to be built that will double the current capacity at Gitmo
  • EU is getting the message that they need to pay their fair share
  • Zelenskyy knows the "blank check" days are over
  • Netanyahu arrives early this week to meet with Trump; first foreign leader to do so
  • US Blackhawk helicopter -- AA crash clearly a fallout from Obama / Biden leadership / actions; no blood on Trump's hands
    • will give Hespeth carte blanche to clean house at the Pentagon, US Army, and FAA
  • Trump has fired all senior leaders at FBI involved in "weaponization" of Obama/Biden enemies
  • foreign college students protesting for terrorist organizations and against Israel will have their visas revoked; one already has had her visa revoked;
  • White House press secretary a breath of fresh air
  • President Trump available to the press 24/7 it seems
  • no one has to worry about what happens if Trump gets that 3:00 a.m. phone call; he will probably be the first president to actually carry the "nuclear code" in his head; won't require that "briefcase"
  • All in two weeks.

So, tell me again, why the US equity markets crashed over the past three days. 

  • Last Friday, and today, Monday, February 3, 2025, investors just experienced the most incredible buying opportunity they might have this calendar year.

Breaking

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.38.

Active rigs: 37.

Three new permits, #41573 - #31575, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Foreman Butte (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for three Roosevelt Federal wells, NWNW 24-150-103, 
      • to be sited 571/575 FNL and 538 / 604 FWL

Five permits renewed:

  • Grayson Mill, all confidential:
  • Sorenson, #38751, Sand Creek,
  • Clear Creek Federal, #38760, Westberg,
  • Clear Creek Federal, #38761, Westberg,
  • Barracuda, #39573, Sandrocks,
  • Fleck, #39574, Sandrocks,

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39211, BR, 2,116, Boxer 4C MB-ULW, McKenzie County;
  • 38939, CLR, 549, Harms West Federal 3-32HSL1, McKenzie;
  • 39315, CLR, 269, Quale Federal 3-1H2, McKenzie;
  • 39316, CLR, 893, Harms East Federal 1-33H, McKenzie County;

Change of operator:

  • From Iron Oil Operating to Kraken: about 50 wells; all in McKenzie Counties; following "family" names of wells involved:
    • Anderson (1),
    • Redwing (1),
    • Stocke (5),
    • Antelope (many),
    • Bear Butte (many),
    • Bowline (2),
    • Ellsworth (3),
    • Boxcar (1),

From AI:


I don't know if folks understand what AI can do, but based on my very, very, very limited experience, it is obvious that Sam Altman / OpenAI and Elon Musk / xAI are going to literally turn the US bureaucracy upside down. This stuff will be handed over to patriots still in the FBI; to US senators and representatives on "select committees"; and to his various czars. Not many stones will be left unturned. 


 
And that's just a start.

Summer Weather Has Returned To North Texas -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48464SUMMER.

Beautiful, beautiful weather here in north Texas. 

It is forecast to be sunny all week with temperatures in the high 70s and is forecast to hit 82°F on Thursday. If it hits 83°F that will be a record held since 1911! Then, Saturday, a high of 84°F is forecast.

1911: eighty-three years before Algore said we only had ten more years on earth if we didn't stop global warming. 

I'm so glad Algore wasn't convincing enough to keep from investing. The tell: the Obamas bought a McMansion on the coast. 

But, yes, winter is not quite over. We will cool down next week.

Everything's Bigger In Texas -- Second-Longest Conveyor To Move Sand In West Texas -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48463SHALE.

Link here. Original story at Texas Monthly with paywall.



Suriname Update -- RBN Energy -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48462SURINAME.

From earlier:Guyana, Antilles, Wear Indies.

Reminder:

Link here.

So, this is what we have:

  • Trinidad and Tobago: Shell.
  • Surinam: Apache and TTE.
  • Guyana: XOM.
  • Venezuela: CVX.

A reader alerted me to a Charles Kennedy article on Guyana, dated March 6, 2023. 

 ****************************
Most Recent

RBN Energy: today, more recent -- Suriname sets its site on becoming major oil supplier with offshore boost. Archived.

As crude oil production surges off the coast of Guyana, its eastern neighbor, Suriname, has set off on its own mission to become a global oil supplier. With some onshore production active for decades, the tiny South American nation now has its sights set on developing its vast offshore reserves. While there have been some setbacks, its international partners are getting their plans back on track. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a deep dive into what’s ahead for Suriname. 

We previously highlighted how Guyana has been a rising star (see Break My Stride) in the global crude market, even if it’s only a recent entrant. Guyana now has three crude grades to offer markets (see My Guy) since its first major oil discovery just a decade ago. The offshore Stabroek block’s only oil-producing area (yellow-shaded area in Figure 1 below) is churning out more than 650 Mb/d of oil from three projects in the reserve-rich Guyana-Suriname Basin (area within dashed-green line). Owners of these assets want to roughly double that volume by the end of 2027 with three more projects. It’s worth noting that in 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the underexplored areas of the Suriname-Guyana Basin held 13.6 billion barrels of oil and 32 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas. But Guyana isn’t the only country with plans to develop those reserves.

The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block

Figure 1. The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block. Source: RBN

The Guyana-Suriname Basin stretches across three countries on the Atlantic coast of South America: Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. The oil-rich formation has an onshore segment but is predominantly an offshore play. Suriname has been extracting minimal amounts of crude oil from the onshore basin since the 1980s but the former Dutch colony wants to raise its profile as a petroleum supplier with its offshore oil bonanza, mirroring its neighbor’s success. (Suriname’s maritime border indicated by dashed-pink line in Figure 1.)

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Guyana, Suriname

Re-posting from August 19, 2021. Link here.

Locator: 10010GUYANA.
Locator: 10010SURINAME.

March 2, 2024: how much oil in Guyana? Now estimated to be one-half trillion dollars. Link here.

February 27, 2024: Chevron-Hess $53 billion merger at risk; XOM and CNOOC claim right of first refusal to buy out Hess stake in Guyana. If XOM and/or CNOOC "win" that argument, there's really no reason for Chevron to pursue Hess, except for Bakken and DJ Basin.

September 8, 2023: update.

March 6, 2023: Guyana wants to bring in more majors

November 29, 2022: update here.

August 19, 2021: Guyana, Suriname oil drilling activity to jump. Link to Irina Slav.

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Background



Guyana-Suriname Basin: rise from obscurity to super potential, WorldOil, May, 2021.

  • estimates of 10+ billion bbls of oil
  • estimates of 30 tera cubic feet of natural gas

THE EARLY EXPLORATION

Onshore exploration. In both Suriname and Guyana, oil seeps were known from the 1800s, into the 1900s. Exploration in Suriname discovered oil at a 160 m depth while drilling for water in a schoolyard in Calcutta Village.2 The onshore Tambaredjo oil field (15-17 oAPI oil) was discovered in 1968. First oil began in 1982. Satellite oil fields to Calcutta and Tambaredjo were added. These fields had an original STOOIP of 1 Bbbl of oil. Currently, these fields are producing around 16,000 bopd.2 Staatsolie’s crude is processed at Tout Lui Faut refinery, at 15,000 bpd, to produce diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, and bitumen.

Guyana did not have the same onshore success; since 1916, 13 wells have been drilled, but only two wells have shown oil.3 Onshore oil exploration in the 1940s produced geological studies in Takatu basin. Three wells were drilled between 1981 and 1993, all either dry or non-commercial. These wells confirmed the presence of thick black shale, Cenomanian-Turonian age (known as Canje Fm), equivalent to the La Luna formation in Venezuela.

Venezuela has a thriving oil exploration and production history.4 Drilling success dates back to 1908, first in the western part of the country with the Zumbaque 1 well,5 with production in Lake Maracaibo rising during WWI and into the 1920s and 1930s. Of course, the tar sands in the Orinoco Belt, discovered in 1936,6 have significantly impacted the oil reserves and resources, contributing to the 78 Bbbl of oil reserves; this reservoir gives Venezuela the current first position on reserves. La Luna formation (Cenomanian-Turonian) is a world-class source rock for much of this oil. La Luna7 is responsible for most of the oil found and produced from the Maracaibo basin and several others in Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. The source rock found offshore Guyana and Suriname has similar characteristics to those found in La Luna, and is the same age.

Offshore Guyana oil exploration: Shelf region. Exploration on the continental shelf began in earnest in 1967,7 with the Guyana Offshore-1 and -2 wells. A 15-year gap ensued until the Arapaima-1 was drilled, followed by Horseshoe-1 in 2000 and the 2012 wells, Eagle-1 and Jaguar-1. Six of these nine wells had either oil or gas shows; only the Abary-1, drilled in 1975, flowed oil (37 oAPI). Although the lack of any economic discovery was disappointing, these wells were very important, because they confirmed a functioning petroleum system was generating oil.

Offshore Suriname oil exploration: Shelf region. The story of exploration on the continental shelf in Suriname mirrors that of Guyana. Nine wells were drilled through 2011, three of which had oil shows; the others were dry. Again, the lack of economic discoveries was disappointing, but these wells confirmed a functioning petroleum system was generating oil.

ODP Leg 207 drilled five sites in 2003 on the Demerara Rise, which separates the Guyana-Suriname basin from offshore French Guiana. Very importantly, all five wells encountered the same Cenomanian-Turonian Canje Fm source rock found in Guyana and Suriname wells, which was a confirmation of the presence of a source rock as La Luna.

Much more at this link.

Guyana success.
ExxonMobil/Hess et al. announced in May 2015 the now-famous Liza-1 discovery well in Stabroek license, offshore Guyana (Liza-1 well12).
Upper Cretaceous turbidite sands are the reservoir.
The follow-up Skipjack-1 well, drilled in 2016, found no commercial hydrocarbons.
Through 2020, the Stabroek partners have announced a total of 18 discoveries, amounting to a gross recoverable resource over 8 Bbbl of oil (corporate ExxonMobil)!
The Stabroek partners solved the concerns about the seismic response to hydrocarbon-bearing versus water-bearing reservoirs (Hess Investor, 2018 Investor Day 8).
A deeper Albian age source rock has been confirmed in some wells.
Interestingly, ExxonMobil and partners found oil in a carbonate reservoir in the Ranger-1 well, announced in 2018. Evidence suggests that this is a carbonate bank that accumulated atop a subsiding volcano.
The Haimara-18 discovery, announced in February 2019 as a gas condensate discovery in 63 m of high-quality reservoir. Haimara-1 sits adjacent to the border between Stabroek, Guyana, and Block 58, Suriname.

From March 6, 2023, link here:

Locator: 10011GUYANA.

Tag: Guyana, Antilles, Wear Indies.

Reminder:

Link here.

So, this is what we have:

  • Trinidad and Tobago: Shell.
  • Surinam: Apache and TTE.
  • Guyana: XOM.
  • Venezuela: CVX.

A reader alerted me to a Charles Kennedy article on Guyana today.  

I had forgotten that Hess partnered with XOM on Guyana.

Now we watch for Shell and and CVX bidding for Guyana; both have experience in this geographic area.

Guyana is tracked here at the sidebar at the right. That site needs to be updated.

Manic Monday -- And It Will Be Manic -- February 3, 2025

Locator: 48461B.

Breaking: US to establish an American Wealth Sovereign Fund -- holy mackerel!

Breaking: Trump suspends increased tariffs on Mexico pending new positive news from the Mexican government. Last thing I heard: Mexico to send 10,000 troops along the border to stem the southern surge. Yes, President Trump while signing new EOs said the 10,000 troops will be based along the border permanently.

Breaking: Panama has stopped huge project with China after Marco Rubio's visit.

Breaking: Rubio could easily be our next US president -- this is best news ever -- the one-two punch -- Elon Musk stopped aid temporarily to sort things about; Rubin will open the portals in a step-wise, well-thought-out manner. US aid is going to come with conditions -- US aid won't come without conditions.

META to re-incorporate outside of Delaware: Texas is high on the list. Link here.


Investing
: a reader asked me late last night if I would be "investing" today (adding to my positions or starting new positions). My answer:

  • you betcha; and
  • I'm always fully invested.

Prediction

  • market volume will set records today
  • the same number of shares that are sold for every ticker will also equal the same number of shares bought

Local schools: students will get an additional two days "off" from school next year

  • school year will still remain the same length -- first day to last day, but students will get two extra days off
  • teachers will be school those days, as training days
  • I'm thrilled! some of the best public elementary schools in the country and they continue to innovate
  • by increasing length of day, the students will get same instructional time for full school year

Making a mountain out of a molehill:

  • 99% of this is political -- will not affect the average American at all:
    • take a look at what Canada will tax coming across the border: bourbon and peanut butter (LOL)
    • the worst example: analysts suggesting it will add $3,000 to the price of a car. Oh, really, if so, that means you're not buying cars from the "right countries" -- last I heard, no tariffs on South Korea or Japan or Taiwan (at least not yet, but that could change also)
  • perspective: we spent much of our adult lives in Europe -- the VAT (value-added tax) was horrendous -- much worse than the tariffs
    • VAT is added at every step in the manufacturing / sales process; each country assesses its own VAT
    • the average VAT is almost 22% -- meaning some European countries must be close to 30% VAT
  • and yes, Canada has a VAT also, though much, much lower than that in Europe
    • I never understood how the Europeans would/could put up with such a high VAT
  • and, just think if this all leads to lower federal income taxes for average Americans ...
  • by the way, overall prices for cars will decrease this way with Trump's new policies, yet to be announced. 

The mountain / molehill of cars coming from Canada -- quick, raise your hand if you are affected. This, amazingly, includes all the cars from BOTH Mexico and Canada -- I see two from Mexico; several from Canada -- and the top four from Canada are NOT American names:

Another mountain out of a molehill, link here:

I'm not sure if Justin Trudeau has read The Art of the Deal. But one can guess. He certainly doesn't seem to understand the oil market. 

Know what won't be affected by the tariffs? EGGS.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.46. WTI up 2.7% overnight; up $1.93.

New wells:

  • Tuesday, February 4, 2025: 5 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year,
    • 39389, conf, CLR, Dalin 2-16H,
  • Monday, February 3, 2025: 4 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 50 for the year,
    • 40703, conf, CLR, Bohmbach FIU 16-26HSL,
  • Sunday, February 2, 2025: 3 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year,
    • 40455, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living Tr-156-98-2017H-5,
    • 39316, conf, CLR, Harms East Federal 1-33H,
  • Saturday, February 1, 2025: 1 for the month, 47 for the quarter, 47 for the year,
    • 39315, conf, CLR, Quale Federal 3-1H2,

RBN Energy: from last week, a reminder, Trump's tariffs will hurt Canadian oil producers more than US refiners. Link here.

RBN Energy: today, more recent -- Suriname sets its site on becoming major oil supplier with offshore boost. Archived.

As crude oil production surges off the coast of Guyana, its eastern neighbor, Suriname, has set off on its own mission to become a global oil supplier. With some onshore production active for decades, the tiny South American nation now has its sights set on developing its vast offshore reserves. While there have been some setbacks, its international partners are getting their plans back on track. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a deep dive into what’s ahead for Suriname. 

We previously highlighted how Guyana has been a rising star (see Break My Stride) in the global crude market, even if it’s only a recent entrant. Guyana now has three crude grades to offer markets (see My Guy) since its first major oil discovery just a decade ago. The offshore Stabroek block’s only oil-producing area (yellow-shaded area in Figure 1 below) is churning out more than 650 Mb/d of oil from three projects in the reserve-rich Guyana-Suriname Basin (area within dashed-green line). Owners of these assets want to roughly double that volume by the end of 2027 with three more projects. It’s worth noting that in 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the underexplored areas of the Suriname-Guyana Basin held 13.6 billion barrels of oil and 32 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas. But Guyana isn’t the only country with plans to develop those reserves.

The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block

Figure 1. The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block. Source: RBN

The Guyana-Suriname Basin stretches across three countries on the Atlantic coast of South America: Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. The oil-rich formation has an onshore segment but is predominantly an offshore play.

Suriname has been extracting minimal amounts of crude oil from the onshore basin since the 1980s but the former Dutch colony wants to raise its profile as a petroleum supplier with its offshore oil bonanza, mirroring its neighbor’s success. (Suriname’s maritime border indicated by dashed-pink line in Figure 1.) 

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Other Energy-Related News

ISO-NE, link here:


MMF: my favorite chart, most recent data, w/w, link here.