Photo taken Christmas Eve, December 24, 2025. The New Yorker double issue: last issue of 2025, first issue of 2026.
Unseasonably warm weather.
81°F yesterday. Not quite as warm today but then should be in the 80s again tomorrow.
Weather can be absolutely dreadful and freezing this time of year in Texas. But not this year.
Locator: 49751INVESTING.
In general, what follows is accurate. There are many exceptions, qualifications, flip-flopping, modifications, etc, but generally this is what I would tell my broker as we begin the discussion.
I'm an investor, not a trader:
With regard to tickers:
Time-frames:
Briefly:
Locator: 49750INTEL.
Locator: 49750INTC.
Link here. No paywall. A few ads. A very, very long article.
Note the editor-in-chief of RCR Wireless News who wrote this very, very long article:
The headline:
The lede:
Locator: 49749TESLACHIPS.
AI prompt: Tesla A15 And Tesla A16 Chips -- this was just part of the reply -- do not confuse these with Apple's A-series chips (link here).
Also from AI:
And the FIFA World Cup (soccer) will make a huge presence know in 2026.
Locator: 49748INVESTING.
Link here. Best, worse, top three in each of three major indices -- S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones --
Briefly:
Locator: 49747TSMC.
Beth, link here. One of the best threads so far today. The comments will highlight and augment Beth's post.
Briefly:
Locator: 49746GROK.
Shay, link here. Once you've read the headline(s), this is the post I found most helpful.
Jonathan Ross, linked here.
The wealth wizard, link here. Note Groq.
Briefly:
Locator: 49745GDP.
In a long note like this, I may have made some typographical / content errors -- keeping track of the colored bars and the respective could get confusing.
The links:
The formula:
This graphic is very, very clear. At least to me. But even with three Google prompts -- more specific each time -- I was unable to get a clear explanation.
Note the y-axis -- on the right-hand side. It's very clear that the colored bars above the mid-line (the 0% line) -- above 0% -- were positive contributors to the GDP -- the black line.
In 3Q25, there are four bars above the zero-percent line, and the GDP black line matches the top of the colored bars. There are no "colored bars below the "0-line." The "blue bar" -- net exports of goods and services -- did not show up at all suggesting it contributed nothing to the 3Q25 GDP (first reading).
In 2Q25, the "blue bar" -- private investment -- extended to the -4.5% line (450 basis points below the "0-line," suggesting that private investment was a drag on the 2Q25 GDP. [Folks should be able to explain that; I would do that but I don't need the pushback.]
Meanwhile, in both quarters, the "green bar" --net exports of goods and services -- had a significant effect on the GDP (black line).
Second observation: If the blue bar had extended 300 basis points in 3Q25 like it did in the first two quarters of 2025, the graph would have put the GDP (the black line) well over 6%.
Third observation: a CNBC talking head said that "Health Care" -- the orange bar -- contributed an outsized amount to 3Q25 GDP (first reading). Most would agree that consumers paying more for "health care" is good for the corporations, perhaps for the US government, but not good for the consumers, all things being equal. It simply means health car has gotten more expensive if consumers are paying more, quarter/quarter or year/year.
But, now that we have the graph, we can decide for ourselves to the extent Health Care contributed to 3Q25 GDP (first reading). Going back to 3Q22, the Health Care component is about the same.
Fourth observation: the orange bar doesn't even show up in the first two quarters of 2022, still in the Covid-19 lockdown period.
Fifth observation: the #1 question -- why is the blue bar completely missing in the latest quarter and was was the blue bar so incredibly negative in the prior quarter.
Sixth observation: it would be nice to hear an unbiased explanation for the huge green bar below the "0-line" in the 1Q25, and the incredible flip the following two quarters.
If I were an economics professor I would assign the students to provide a five-page double-space letter explaining this graph. They can use a chatbot as much as they want. One-fourth of the students would be randomly called before the class and explain the three most important points in their five-page analysis. They would not be told ahead of time; the only thing they would be told -- submit a five-page analysis of the graphic.
It would be great for CNBC to show this graphic and have Steve Liesman and Rick Santelli and hash it out. Rick, of course, would report objectively; Steve, not so much.
Jargon: by the way, the formula above is called the "GDP deflator" because is a price index that is used to "deflate" nominal GDP (GDP measured in current dollars) into real GDP (GDP measured in constant purchasing power). -- ChatGPT.
Locator: 49745B.
Jobs: initial jobless claims come in under expectations -- 215K vs 225K estimated, but, of course, analysts question the data -- holiday; seasonal; a GDP of 4.3% (first reading, 3Q25), etc. Same analysts aren't even happy with a 4.3% GDP. This is all from CNBC talking heads. So, continued good news and analysts not happy. But as usual, everyone's waiting for more data. LOL. It gets tedious.
NFL: tomorrow -- all three games limited to three "pay" options -- Amazon Priime (for the prime time eventing) and Netflix for the two daytime games. A long time ago, I said it was just a matter before the NFL would slide and dice "pay" options, Instead of offering "buffet" options at one annual price, the NFL would offer the games on an a la carte basis, much more expensive for the fan. At least for now, local networks will air the Netflix games for "their" teams. So, the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Commanders game today on Netflix will be available through the local network (CBS) for local market, if that makes sense. I don't believe that's true for the Amazon Prime game.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $58.55.
New wells being reported:
RBN Energy: E&Ps struggle to maintain reserve life under the cash-return model. Link here. Archived.
In the upstream oil and gas world, “reserve life” — calculated via the Reserve Life Index (RLI) — is one of the simplest and most widely cited metrics. The calculation is straightforward: divide a company’s proved reserves by its current annual production and you get an estimate of how long those reserves will last. But behind that neat little ratio lies a web of technical, financial and strategic forces that can make RLI a surprisingly nuanced measure of an E&P’s long-term outlook. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the reserve-life trends of the 39 E&P companies we cover.
At its core, reserve life starts with the size and quality of the rock. Reservoirs with strong porosity, permeability and pressure profiles generate higher recoveries, while effective secondary and tertiary recovery techniques can stretch reserves for decades. Deep offshore basins, like the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), are notorious for short RLIs because the reservoirs have very high decline rates. That is the primary reason most E&Ps left the Gulf decades ago, although production there is on the rise (see Back in the Saddle). Shale reservoirs also have much higher decline rates than conventional resources. A short RLI creates a reinvestment treadmill that makes it very difficult to manage the capital demands on the company. The recent emphasis on shale production means that 90% of capital investment since 2019 has gone to offsetting declines rather than adding to supply. Conversely, a longer RLI makes the pace of reinvestment more manageable.
But geology is not the only factor. The weighting of total proved reserves between proved developed and undeveloped makes a huge difference. (Proved reserves are the estimated quantities of oil and natural gas that geological and engineering data demonstrate — with reasonable certainty — can be economically produced from known reservoirs under existing economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations as of a specific evaluation date. Proved undeveloped reserves require significant future capital before they can be produced. Companies with vast undeveloped reserves generally have a longer RLI than companies with far fewer undeveloped reserves.) In addition, the pace at which a company develops its acreage is equally important: An aggressive drilling program that drives reserve additions higher will push RLI higher, as reserves are added at a faster clip than production. Conversely, a cash-return model (where E&Ps prioritize generating free cash flow and returning cash to shareholders over production growth) can reduce reserve life as reserves are reduced at a faster rate than production drops. This is illustrated in Figure 1 below, which plots the reinvestment rate and reserve life between 2014-24 for our universe of companies. The RLI (blue bars and left axis) averaged 12.8 years in 2014-15 before gradually falling to 9.9 years in 2024 as the reinvestment rate (orange line and right axis) was reduced from 104% of cash flow in 2014-15 to only 50% in 2024.
Locator: 49744B.
Blog shorthand: when I say a well will be sited at 689 / 663 FNL and 1901 / 1836 FEL, I am using shorthand to show that the wells on that pad (regardless of the number) will be sited between 689 feet and 663 feet from the north line; same with distance from the east or west line.
FNL: from north line = from the north section line
FEL: from east line = from the east section line
FSL: from south line = from the south section line
FWL: from west line = from the west section line
That information can be found on the daily activity report, free to anyone at the NDIC site without a subscription or password:
The information can also be found the scout ticket or production history, both of which require a subscription to "Basic Services" at the NDIC site, a $50 annual subscription.
It really isn't necessary to provide this information on the blog, but I started doing it some time ago (many years ago) when NDIC was often down (during Covid-19 lockdown and during transition to new contractor) so that if NDIC was down, I still had the historic information.
The daily activity site sometimes also includes the bottom hole location (which I don't post -- yet) but does include the sections (or fractions of sections) in the spacing/drilling unit.
Locator: 49743WHISKEY.
Home page. I had not seen this whiskey before in our local package store. I didn't buy any; I'm not in the market for spirits right now, but I thought it interesting.
Kirby, Wyoming.
About six years ago, I accidentally took the Wind River Canyon route -- Shoshoni to Thermopolis -- one of the most beautiful canyons I had ever seen -- I knew nothing about it until I just happened to stumble upon it. This past Sunday, I was talking to our church's music director and he mentioned he was originally from Wyoming and we talked of the canyon! Then, today, while visiting friends at Total Wines I came across this little treasure. What a story.
First legal distillery in Wyoming since Prohibition.
Locator: 49742BEER.
I mentioned earlier how inexpensive our beer was here in north Texas. My favorite, not pictured below, is $10.99 / 6-pack.
These are in the $8 - $9 range. Two brewed in Dallas, the third brewed in a suburb of Ft Worth, Grapevine, where we live.
Locator: 49741B.
Beer: Went for a bike ride, the day was so incredibly beautiful. I stopped at Total Wines to say "hi" to the manager and a checker whom I have grown to know well over the past ten (?) years. I'm no longer drinking (alcohol) so I just stopped in to say "hi," see what was new. I still have an occasional beer but significantly less often than, let's say, six months ago.
Beer remains incredibly inexpensive here in north Texas. I'll post some photos later with prices. See also, Wyoming, Whiskey.
So, today, the high was 80°F and on Friday the high is forecast for 82°F -- I will be at the pool -- probably tomorrow because on Friday, I may be on the road. We'll see.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $58.47.
Active rigs: 30.
Five new permits, #42593 - #42598, inclusive:
Ten permits renewed:
One permit canceled:
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Dry holes:
Locator: 49740TAXES.
AI prompt: this is all over the net -- e-mail with this notice is being sent to me -- is this true -- the "Standard Deduction" is projected to be cut in roughly half. Here's what Google says:
All good news. Thank you, Mr Trump. I doubt Joe Biden would have done this.
Locator: 49739PASSWORDS.
From Facebook. Needs to be fact-checked but seems reasonable. Link here.
Some observations:
I'm sure there's a lot more to this but it certainly explains why common advice for a password:
To what extent small repeating units affect this, I don't know but changing the repeating units by one number or one letter or one symbol should be the key.
Two-step verification is most important.
Locator: 49738GDP.
Barron's, link here. 
Locator: 49734WEALTH.
Intergenerational wealth transfer! Wow, wow, wow! Corient
commercial this morning is now "reporting" that the intergenerational
wealth transfer will be $124 trillion! That has been a recent story on
the blog. The bigger story, not being reported: like everything else in
life, this $124 trillion will not be evenly distributed across all
income levels.
Briefly:
Locator: 49733B.
GDP, 3Q25: huge number; blows away expectations. 4.3% vs 3.2% estimate, first reading. A 4.3% GDP! Amazing. Other numbers not so good. But not bad. The "nominal" GDP is even much higher. The headline GDP number being reported is after inflation number is taken out. Before taking out inflation, GDP, first reading for 3Q25, was trending toward 8%. Amazing. Productivity numbers are apparently "off the charts" -- great productivity numbers. (AI?) The market will be down because this is not a report that will spur the Fed to cut rates.
Gasoline: at four-year lows. Folks would hardly know that listening to mainstream media.
Ford Lightning: link to WSJ. "They" still don't get it.
Calpine: quick! Where is Calpine headquartered? When / where did Calpine start? What does Calpine do? Energy Capital Partners' investment in Calpine will earn the firm and its ivestors more than $25 billion -- the most profitable private-equity deal ever! And we haven't heard a thing about this until now!? A WSJ exclusive; link here. Wiki.
Offshore wind: a national security threat? "They" still don't get it. "They": those who don't understand why offshore wind is a national security threat.
Jim Beam: temporarily shutting down its trademark distillery -- the facility in Clermont, KY -- production will pause for the entire year (2026). Canadians have quit drinking American bourbon. Having said that, the fact is Kentucky bourbon sales started slowing down in 2024, before Trump tariffs. Whether it's related to THC-infused drinks it's hard to say. Here in Texas, THC-infused drinks are decimating the beer industry. Articles in the WSJ commonly get tens to scores of comments; this article: 4,000 comments and counting.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $58.16.
New wells reporting:
RBN Energy: Gulf of Mexico oil production nears new high , but will growth continue? Link here. Archived.
Crude oil production in the U.S.’s portion of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is poised to top 2 MMb/d for the first time in six years — and only the third time ever. New floating production units (FPUs) and subsea tiebacks keep coming online. And a newcomer to the U.S. GOM, U.K.-based Harbour Energy, just announced a multibillion-dollar deal to acquire LLOG Exploration, a leading Gulf player. As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, a lot is happening in the U.S.’s second-largest oil production area.
It’s been a long and winding road for Gulf of Mexico production. In the early 2000s, the GOM was churning out more than 1.6 MMb/d of crude oil, twice as much as in the early 1980s. But production (teal line in Figure 1 below) was set back by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 (dashed red oval), Gustav and Ike in 2008 (dashed green oval), and the Macondo disaster in 2010. In response to that incident, which resulted in the loss of 11 lives and the release of more than 4 MMbbl of oil, the federal government declared a six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling. GOM production sagged (dashed yellow oval) and didn’t return to pre-Macondo levels until 2016-17.
Locator: 49732ARCHIVES.
NFL: Kansas City Chiefs will have a new stadium in 2031, or thereabouts. The NFL and the Chiefs announced today that the team will be moving .... wait for it ... a couple of miles to the west, crossing the state line from (east) Kansas City (Missouri) to (west) Kansas City (Kansas). Much could be said. There are "no" Fortune 500 companies headquartered in Kansas City (on either side of the state line).
AI prompt: Kansas City was an important railroad terminal and cattle industry in the 1800s. In fact, I think, it was a major RR terminal for troop transport during WWI. It looked like it might be a "major" US city at one time. What happened? It doesn't even have one Fortune 500 company now.
Which takes us to Minnesota. Medicare scandal: it's unlikely that any of the Fortune 500 companies in Minneapolis will move out of Minnesota any time soon, but Minnesota is becoming a less desirable state year-by-year.
State income tax: in 2025, Iowa has a single flat income tax rate of 3.8%, while Minnesota has a graduated income tax with rates ranging from 5.35% to 9.85%.
The highest rate (Minnesota), almost 10%, kicks in at an income level slightly higher than $330,000. Even Illinois has an income tax less than Minnesota's: a flat 4.95% tax rate. Massachusetts? Flat rate of 5.0% with a 4% tax surcharge on income greater than one million dollars. Wow, I never knew Minnesota had such a high income tax. Upwards of 100,000 families in Minneapolis appear to be subject to the highest marginal tax rate. I find that just sadly amazing.
I can understand why Minnesotans outside of Minneapolis might be tempted to move to Minneapolis, but I have no idea why a non-Minnesotan would ever want to move to Minnesota in current environment, except for strong family ties.
A long conversation with Google Gemini led to this bottom line:
While Minnesota experiences "net domestic migration losses" (more people leave for other states than come from them), the substantial influx from bordering states and others, combined with significant international immigration, drives overall population growth.
Well, that explains that.
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Lego
Wow, looking at Minnesota -- what a depressing story.
The good news: Lego.
Lego is rebuilding how consumers engage with motorsport brick by brick.
In 2025, Lego kicked off a partnership with Formula 1 that brought officially licensed sets to global retail shelves and immersive experiences to races around the world. In the nearly year since launch, the collaboration has bolstered fan engagement for both brands, lead to promotional sales of Lego products and expanded the demographic reach for the toy company and the racing organization.
In August, Lego CEO Niels Christiansen touted the company’s Formula 1 sets as one of the innovations that fueled record first-half revenue and operating profit.
The company, which is privately held, reported a 12% year-over-year revenue bump to $5.4 billion for the first six months of 2025.
“It is a massively growing fan base,” Julia Goldin, chief product and marketing officer at Lego, told CNBC. “It is the biggest motorsport now in terms of its fandom. ... We felt that we could really tap into that and deliver something very unique.”
With Formula 1, Lego isn’t just leveraging an existing fandom, it’s expanding it, bringing underserved demographics into the world of racing and engaging new customers.
“Lego has a great reputation for picking out the right trends to become a part of, and motorsports in recent years has been on a real upswing,” said James Zahn, editor in chief of The Toy Book.
Locator: 49731B.
WTI:
Active rigs: 32 (recent high)
Six new permits, #42587 - #42592, inclusive:
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:
Locator: 49730DOCKETS.
Cases for upwards of 200 new wells; almost all on five-well pads; almost all in northwest North Dakota.
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Link here.
The cases, again, these are cases, not permits:
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Link here.
The cases, again, these are cases, not permits:
