Tuesday, December 23, 2025

What An Incredible Day -- 80°F Was The High -- Forecast, 82° On Day After Christmas -- North Texas -- December 23, 2025

Locator49741B

Beer: Went for a bike ride, the day was so incredibly beautiful. I stopped at Total Wines to say "hi" to the manager and a checker whom I have grown to know well over the past ten (?) years. I'm no longer drinking (alcohol) so I just stopped in to say "hi," see what was new. I still have an occasional beer but significantly less often than, let's say, six months ago. 

Beer remains incredibly inexpensive here in north Texas. I'll post some photos later with prices. 

So, today, the high was 80°F and on Friday the high is forecast for 82°F -- I will be at the pool -- probably tomorrow because on Friday, I may be on the road. We'll see.

**********************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $58.47.

Active rigs: 30. 

Five new permits, #42593 - #42598, inclusive:

  • Operators: KODA Resources (3); Silver Hill Energy (2)
  • Fields: East Goose Lake (Divide County; Big Meadow (Williams); and, Temple (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • KODA Resources has permits for three Ale permits, NWNE 23-161-103, 
      • to be sited 689 / 663 FNL and 1901 / 1836 FEL;
    • Silver Hill has permits for two permits, an Iverson E permit, and a Ron Burgundy permit, both NWNE 15-158-96, 
      • to be sited 374 FNL and 671 / 1740 FEL.

Ten permits renewed:

  • BR (4): two Renegade permits and two Chuckwagon permits, all in Sand Creek (McKenzie County)
  • Foundation Energy (3): Mosser Federal, and two Audrey permits, Elkhorn Ranch (Billings County) and Beaver Creek (Golden Valley County);
  • Formentera Operations (2): two FLX2 permits, Flaxton (Burke County);
  • Hess: an EN-MOMM permit Big Butte (Mountrail County)

One permit canceled:

  • 40918, PNC, Zavanna, Rennerfeldt, Williams County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed

  • 36868, 2,041, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-1H,
  • 40825, 1,792, CLR, Bjarne 5-29H, 

Dry holes:

  • 23159, Neptune, State, Williams County;
  • 23161, Neptune, State, Williams County;
  • 35357, XTO, Lonnie Federal, Williams County;
  • 36832, XTO, HBU Muller, Williams County; 

PSA -- Next Year's IRS Standard Deduction -- December 23, 2025

Locator49740TAXES

AI prompt: this is all over the net -- e-mail with this notice is being sent to me -- is this true -- the "Standard Deduction" is projected to be cut in roughly half.  Here's what Google says:

All good news. Thank you, Mr Trump. I doubt Joe Biden would have done this. 

Passwords -- December 23, 2025

Locator49739PASSWORDS

From Facebook. Needs to be fact-checked but seems reasonable. Link here.

Some observations:

  • the first real breakpoint: 8 characters, upper and lower case letters -- from four months to 15 years;
  • by adding numbers, extends 15 years to 62 years, but
  • simply adding one more character (9 characters), takes us from 62 years to 3,000 years
  • the next breakpoint: 10 characters; 238,000 years
  • finally, twelve characters, add a symbol and we go to 3 billion years

I'm sure there's a lot more to this but it certainly explains why common advice for a password:

  • at least 8 characters
  • upper and lower case letters
  • simply add a symbol,
  • but going to 12 character (including a symbol) appears to be the holy grail. 

To what extent small repeating units affect this, I don't know but changing the repeating units by one number or one letter or one symbol should be the key. 

Two-step verification is most important.  

US 3Q25 First Reading GDP -- Huge Story Today -- Getting Mixed Reviews -- December 23, 2025

Locator49738GDP

Barron's, link here


CAT: on another note, huge story on CNBC at end of trading day. 

Saudi Aramco's Key Financial Results -- December 23, 2025

Locator49737SAUDIARAMCO. 

From 3Q25:

From 2Q25, link here

Foreign Exchange Reserves -- Russia, Saudi Arabia, China -- Posted December 23, 2025

Locator49736SAUDI. 

Locator49736CHINA.

Locator: 49736RUSSIA.  

Foreign exchange reserves: Russia, Saudi Arabia, China.

Russia, link here: posted December 23, 2025:

Saudi, link here: posted December 23, 2025:

China, link here, posted December 23, 2025: 

Legacy Fund -- December 23, 2025

Locator: 49735LEGACY.  

Legacy Fund
: link here. 

Disclaimer -- December 23, 2025

Locator: 49734WEALTH.  

Intergenerational wealth transfer! Wow, wow, wow! Corient commercial this morning is now "reporting" that the intergenerational wealth transfer will be $124 trillion! That has been a recent story on the blog. The bigger story, not being reported: like everything else in life, this $124 trillion will not be evenly distributed across all income levels. 

*********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
  • All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • And Oracle. 
  • Longer version here.

GDP Rate Without "Manipulation" Comes Close To 8% -- Tuesday -- December 23, 2025

Locator: 49733B.  

GDP, 3Q25: huge number; blows away expectations. 4.3% vs 3.2% estimate, first reading
. A 4.3% GDP! Amazing. Other numbers not so good. But not bad. The "nominal" GDP is even much higher. The headline GDP number being reported is after inflation number is taken out. Before taking out inflation, GDP, first reading for 3Q25, was trending toward 8%. Amazing. Productivity numbers are apparently "off the charts" -- great productivity numbers. (AI?) The market will be down because this is not a report that will spur the Fed to cut rates. 

Gasoline: at four-year lows. Folks would hardly know that listening to mainstream media.

Ford Lightning: link to WSJ. "They" still don't get it. 

Calpine: quick! Where is Calpine headquartered? When / where did Calpine start? What does Calpine do? Energy Capital Partners' investment in Calpine will earn the firm and its ivestors more than $25 billion -- the most profitable private-equity deal ever! And we haven't heard a thing about this until now!? A WSJ exclusive; link here. Wiki.

Offshore wind: a national security threat? "They" still don't get it. "They": those who don't understand why offshore wind is a national security threat.

Jim Beam: temporarily shutting down its trademark distillery -- the facility in Clermont, KY -- production will pause for the entire year (2026). Canadians have quit drinking American bourbon. Having said that, the fact is Kentucky bourbon sales started slowing down in 2024, before Trump tariffs. Whether it's related to THC-infused drinks it's hard to say. Here in Texas, THC-infused drinks are decimating the beer industry. Articles in the WSJ commonly get tens to scores of comments; this article: 4,000 comments and counting.

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $58.16.

New wells reporting:

  • Wednesday, December 24, 2025: 59 for the month, 182 for the quarter, 765 for the year,
    • 41659, conf, Phoenix Operating, Shivey 28-33 5H,
    • 41658, conf, Phoenix Operating, Shivey 28-33 4H,
    • 41657, conf, Phoenix Operating, Shivey 28-33 2H, 
    • 41656, conf, Phoenix Operating, Shivey 28-33 1H, 
    • 41618, conf, Phoenix Operating, Shivey 28-33 3H, 
  • Tuesday, December 23, 2025: 54 for the month, 177 for the quarter, 760 for the year,
    • 40957, conf, Devon Energy, Grand National 34-36F 4H, 

RBN Energy: Gulf of Mexico oil production nears new high , but will growth continue? Link here. Archived

Crude oil production in the U.S.’s portion of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is poised to top 2 MMb/d for the first time in six years — and only the third time ever. New floating production units (FPUs) and subsea tiebacks keep coming online. And a newcomer to the U.S. GOM, U.K.-based Harbour Energy, just announced a multibillion-dollar deal to acquire LLOG Exploration, a leading Gulf player. As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, a lot is happening in the U.S.’s second-largest oil production area. 

It’s been a long and winding road for Gulf of Mexico production. In the early 2000s, the GOM was churning out more than 1.6 MMb/d of crude oil, twice as much as in the early 1980s. But production (teal line in Figure 1 below) was set back by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 (dashed red oval), Gustav and Ike in 2008 (dashed green oval), and the Macondo disaster in 2010. In response to that incident, which resulted in the loss of 11 lives and the release of more than 4 MMbbl of oil, the federal government declared a six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling. GOM production sagged (dashed yellow oval) and didn’t return to pre-Macondo levels until 2016-17.

Monday, December 22, 2025

Rambling -- Minnesota, Lego -- December 22, 2025

Locator: 49732ARCHIVES.  

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs will have a new stadium in 2031, or thereabouts. The NFL and the Chiefs announced today that the team will be moving .... wait for it ... a couple of miles to the west, crossing the state line from (east) Kansas City (Missouri) to (west) Kansas City (Kansas). Much could be said. There are "no" Fortune 500 companies headquartered in Kansas City (on either side of the state line).

AI prompt: Kansas City was an important railroad terminal and cattle industry in the 1800s. In fact, I think, it was a major RR terminal for troop transport during WWI. It looked like it might be a "major" US city at one time. What happened? It doesn't even have one Fortune 500 company now. 

Which takes us to Minnesota. Medicare scandal: it's unlikely that any of the Fortune 500 companies in Minneapolis will move out of Minnesota any time soon, but Minnesota is becoming a less desirable state year-by-year. 

State income tax: in 2025, Iowa has a single flat income tax rate of 3.8%, while Minnesota has a graduated income tax with rates ranging from 5.35% to 9.85%

The highest rate (Minnesota), almost 10%, kicks in at an income level slightly higher than $330,000. Even Illinois has an income tax less than Minnesota's: a flat 4.95% tax rate. Massachusetts? Flat rate of 5.0% with a 4% tax surcharge on income greater than one million dollars. Wow, I never knew Minnesota had such a high income tax. Upwards of 100,000 families in Minneapolis appear to be subject to the highest marginal tax rate. I find that just sadly amazing.

I can understand why Minnesotans outside of Minneapolis might be tempted to move to Minneapolis, but I have no idea why a non-Minnesotan would ever want to move to Minnesota in current environment, except for strong family ties.

A long conversation with Google Gemini led to this bottom line:  

While Minnesota experiences "net domestic migration losses" (more people leave for other states than come from them), the substantial influx from bordering states and others, combined with significant international immigration, drives overall population growth.

Well, that explains that.  

*************************
Lego

Wow, looking at Minnesota -- what a depressing story.

The good news: Lego.

Link here.

Lego is rebuilding how consumers engage with motorsport brick by brick. 
In 2025, Lego kicked off a partnership with Formula 1 that brought officially licensed sets to global retail shelves and immersive experiences to races around the world. In the nearly year since launch, the collaboration has bolstered fan engagement for both brands, lead to promotional sales of Lego products and expanded the demographic reach for the toy company and the racing organization. 
In August, Lego CEO Niels Christiansen touted the company’s Formula 1 sets as one of the innovations that fueled record first-half revenue and operating profit
The company, which is privately held, reported a 12% year-over-year revenue bump to $5.4 billion for the first six months of 2025. 
“It is a massively growing fan base,” Julia Goldin, chief product and marketing officer at Lego, told CNBC. “It is the biggest motorsport now in terms of its fandom. ... We felt that we could really tap into that and deliver something very unique.” 
With Formula 1, Lego isn’t just leveraging an existing fandom, it’s expanding it, bringing underserved demographics into the world of racing and engaging new customers. 
“Lego has a great reputation for picking out the right trends to become a part of, and motorsports in recent years has been on a real upswing,” said James Zahn, editor in chief of The Toy Book.

Six New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 22, 2025

Locator: 49731B.  

WTI:

Active rigs: 32 (recent high) 

Six new permits, #42587 - #42592, inclusive:

  • Operators: KODA Resources (5), Ballard Petroleum Holdings
  • Fields: Daneville (Divide County); Chatfield (Bottineau County)
  • Comments:
    • Ballard Petroleum has a permit for a Borstad well, SWNW 30-159-81, Chatfield-Madison unit
      • to be sited, 1550 FNL and 500 FWL;  
    • KODA Resources has permits for five Ale wells, NWNE 23-161-103; 
      • to be sited 471 / 510 FNL 1895 / 1993 FEL; and, 701 FNL 1994 FEL.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:

  • 40826, 1,444, CLR, Bjarne 6-29H, 
  • 41797, 1,462, CLR, Wallace 7-11HSL,


 

Phoenix Operating Cases In The January, 2026, NDIC Hearing Dockets.

Locator: 49730DOCKETS.  

Cases for upwards of 200 new wells; almost all on five-well pads; almost all in northwest North Dakota.  

Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Link here.

The cases, again, these are cases, not permits: 

  • 32462, Phoenix Operating, Estes/Mondak-Bakken; establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie;
  • 32463, Phoenix Operating, Estes/Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 3840-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie;
  • 32464, Phoenix Operating, Nelson Bridge/Estes-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie;
  • 32465, Phoenix Operating, Estes-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit, five wells; McKenzie;
  • 32466, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32467, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32468, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32469, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32470, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken/Yellowstone-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32471, Phoenix Operating, Mondak/Yellow-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32478, Phoenix Operating, Strandahl-Bakken, establish a standup 1880-acre unit; five wells; Williams County;
  • 32484, Phoenix Operating, Skabo/Wildrose/Big Stone/Corinth-Bakken; establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; one well in the unit; Divide County and Williams County;
  • 32485, Phoenix Operating, Wildrose/Corinth-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; one well; Divide County and Williams County;
  • 32492, Phoenix Operating, Butte/Bennett Creek-Bakken, establish a standup 3200-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;

Thursday, January 22, 2026
Link here.

The cases, again, these are cases, not permits:  

  • 32518, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32519, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke;
  • 32520, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre. unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32521, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32522, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560 acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32523, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32424, Phoenix Operating, Noonan/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32525, Phoenix Operating, Baukol Noonan/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32526, Phoenix Operating, Baukot Noonan/Noonan-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32527, Phoenix Operating, Noonan-Bakken; establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32528, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32529, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32530, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32531, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32532, Phoeix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County; 
  • 32533, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32534, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit five wells; Burke County;
  • 32535, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells, Burke County;
  • 32536, Phoenix Operating, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32537, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32538, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burkey County;
  • 32539, Phoenix Operating, Lone Butte-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32540, Phoenix Operating, Writing Rock-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32563, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken, five wells to be drilled on a previously established 1920-acre unit; Divide County;
  • 32564, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken, five wells to be drilled on a previously established 1920-acre unit; Divide County;

Intersect -- AI -- Energy -- Texas Panhandle -- December 22, 2025

Locator: 49729LDC. 

From CNBC, link here

This is what CNBC failed to tell you.


 From CNBC:


NDIC Hearing Dockets, January 22 - 22, 2026 -- Posted December 22, 2025

Locator: 49728DOCKETS. 

Hearing dockets are found here at the NDIC.

Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Link here.
22 pages
.

The cases, again, these are cases, not permits: 

  • 32457, Enerplus, Little Knife-Bakken, overlapping standup 5120-acre unit; one well; Dunn County;
  • 32458, Enerplus, Marmon and/or Church-Bakken; establish two overlapping standup 2560-acre units; four wells on each; Williams County;
  • 32459, Enerplus, Strandahl-Bakken, establish two overlapping laydown 1920-acre units; four wells on each, Williams;
  • 32460, Whiting, New Hradec and/or Green River-Bakken; establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit; two wells; Stark County;
  • 32461, Whiting, Mondak and/or Estes-Bakken, establish two overlapping laydown 2560-acre units; four wells on each; McKenzie County;
  • 32462, Phoenix Operating, Estes/Mondak-Bakken; establish a standup 2560-acreunit; five wells; McKenzie;
  • 32463, Phoenix Operating, Estes/Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 3840-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie;
  • 32464, Phoenix Operating, Nelson Bridge/Estes-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie;
  • 32465, Phoenix Operating, Estes-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit, five wells; McKenzie;
  • 32466, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32467, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32468, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32469, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32470, Phoenix Operating, Mondak-Bakken/Yellowstone-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32471, Phoenix Operating, Mondak/Yellow-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32472, Oasis, Murphy Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit; two wells; establish two overlapping standup 1920-acre unit; four wells; establish an overlapping laydown 1920-acre unit; four wells; establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit; four wells; Dunn County;
  • 32473, Oasis, Heart Butte-Bakken, extend field outline; establish an overlapping laydown 1600-acre unit; one well; establish a laydown 1920-acre unit; four wells; establish a laydown 2240-acre unit; four wells; establish four laydown 2560-acre units; four wells on each; McLean and Dunn counties;
  • 32474, Oasis, Heart Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; six wells, Dunn County;
  • 32475, Oasis, Deep Water Creek Bay and/or Heart Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping laydown 2560-acre unit; four wells; McLean, Dunn counties;
  • 32476, Oasis, Deep Water creek Bay-Bakken, extend the field outline, establish a standup. 1920-acre unit; four wells; McLean County;
  • 32477, Oasis, Strandahl-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit; three wells; Williams County; 
  • 32478, Phoenix Operating, Strandahl-Bakken, establish a standup 1880-acre unit; five wells; Williams County;
  • 32479, Oasis, Viking and/or North Tioga-Bakken; establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit; three wells; Burke County;
  • 32480, Oasis, Black Slough-Bakken, establish two overlapping laydown 1920-acre units; four wells; Burke County;
  • 32481, Oasis, Black Slough, Foothills and/or Northeast Foothills-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit; three wells; Burke County;
  • 32482, Oasis, Foothills-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit; three wells, Burke County;
  • 32483, Oasis, Foothills and/or Cottonwood-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit; three wells; Burke County
  • 32484, Phoenix Operating, Skabo/Wildrose/Big Stone/Corinth-Bakken; establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; one well in each unit; Divide County and Williams County;
  • 32485, Phoenix Operating, Wildrose/Corinth-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; one well; Divide County and Williams County;
  • 32486, Hess, White Earth and/or Big Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit; two wells; establish an overlapping standup 5120-acre unit; one well; Mountrail County;
  • 32487, Hess, Ross-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2400-acre unit; nine wells, Mountrail County;
  • 32488, Hess, Alger and/or Ross-Bakken establish an overlapping 1120-acre unit, three wells; Mountrail County;
  • 32489, Hess, Ross-Bakken, establish two overlapping standup 2560-acre units; four wells; establish two overlapping standup 5120-acre units; one well on each unit; Mountrail County;
  • 32490, White Rock, Grassy Butte-Bakken, extend the field outline, establish three standup 2560-acre unit;s four wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32491, White Rock, Ranch Creek, Butte and/or West Butte-Bakken, establish two overlapping laydown 2560-acre unit; four wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32492, Phoenix Operating, Butte/Bennett Creek-Bakken, establish a standup 3200-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32493, Petro-Hunt, Smoky Butte-Bakken, establish two overlapping standup 1920-acre units; four wells; Divide County;
  • 32494, Petro-Hunt, Burg-Bakken, establish four overlapping standup 2560-acre units; four wells on each; Divide, Williams counties;
  • 32495, Petro-Hunt, Garnet, Burg, and/or Musta-Bakken, establish nine overlapping 1920-acre units; four wells on each; Divide County;
  • 32496, Petro-Hunt, Plumer-Bakken, establish four overlapping standup 1920-acre units; four wells on each; Divide County;
  • 32497, Petro-Hunt, Whiteaker and/or Moraine-Bakken, establish six overalpping standup 1920-acre units; four wells each, Divide County;
  • 32498, Petro-Hunt, Burg-Bakken; four wells on five standup 1920-acre units; Divide County;
  • 32499, Petro-Hunt, Skabo-Bakken, four wells on three standup 1920-acre units; Divide County;
  • 32500, Kraken, commingling; 
  • 32501, Hess, pooling;
  • 32502, Hess, pooling; 
  • 32503,
  • 32504,
  • 32505,
  • 32506,
  • 32507,
  • 32508,
  • 32509,
  • 32510, Oasis, Heart Butte-Bakken, six wells on a proposed overlapping 1920-acre unit; Dunn County; 

Thursday, January 22, 2026
Link here.
23 pages.

The cases, again, these are cases, not permits: 

  • 32511, RIM Operating, establish a 320-acre unit; authorizing the re-entry of an existing well and completion of the same into the Duperow and/or Red River formation, McKenzie
  • 32512, CLR, East Fork-Bakken, establish four overlapping 1920-acre unit; six wells on each unit; establish two overlapping 3840-acre units; section line well; Williams County;
  • 32513, Devon Energy, Camp-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; five wells; establish two overlapping 5120-acre units; two section line wells;
  • 32514, Valkyri Operating, Fortuna-Bakken, establish five overlapping standup 1920-acre units; 10 wells on each unit; Divide County;
  • 32515, Zavanna, Stony Creek-Bakken, and/or Williston-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, eight wells on that unit; Williams County;
  • 32516. Petro-Hunt, Frazier-Bakken, overlapping standup 1920-acre unit; four wells; Divide County;
  • 32517, Formentera Operations, Forthun-Bakken and/or Larson-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; six wells; establish two overlapping 2560-acreunits; six wells; establish an overlapping 3840-acreunit; section line well; establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; a section line well; Burke County;
  • 32518, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32519, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke;
  • 32520, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre. unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32521, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32522, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560 acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32523, Phoenix Operating, Larson/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32424, Phoenix Operating, Noonan/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32525, Phoenix Operating, Baukol Noonan/Forthun-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32526, Phoenix Operating, Baukot Noonan/Noonan-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32527, Phoenix Operating, Noonan-Bakken; establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32528, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32529, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32530, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32531, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32532, Phoeix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County; 
  • 32533, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32534, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit five wells; Burke County;
  • 32535, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells, Burke County;
  • 32536, Phoenix Operating, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32537, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burke County;
  • 32538, Phoenix Operating, Black Slough-Bakken, establish a standup 2560-acre unit; five wells; Burkey County;
  • 32539, Phoenix Operating, Lone Butte-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit; five wells; McKenzie County;
  • 32540, Phoenix Operating, Writing Rock-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit; five wells; Divide County;
  • 32541, Phoenix Operating, suspend and revoke legalese;
  • 32542, EOG, pooling; 
  • 32543,
  • 32544,
  • 32545,
  • 32546,
  • 32547
  • 32548,
  • 32549,
  • 32550,
  • 32551,
  • 32552,
  • 32553,
  • 32554, Formentera Operations, pooling;
  • 32555, Formentera Operations, pooling;
  • 32556,
  • 32557,
  • 32558,
  • 32559,
  • 32560,
  • 32561,
  • 32562,
  • 32563, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken, five wells to be drilled on a previously established 1920-acre unit; Divide County;
  • 32564, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken, five wells to be drilled on a previously established 1920-acre unit; Divide County;
  • 32565,
  • 32566,
    32567, 

Edge -- Apple -- December 22, 2025

Locator: 49764EDGE. 

I'll talk about this later if folks need an explanation.

This is going to be incredibly important when OpenAI moves to adult content and advertising. And, so much else. That's just the tip of the iceberg.


Spaceholder for later.

Photo Enhancement -- Merry Christmas -- December 22, 2025

Locator: 49763AIPHOTOS. 

My daughter sent family and friends this Christmas photo of her family:
 

One of her friends, provided this improvement: 

Cramer's First Hour -- December 22, 2025

Locator: 49762CRAMER. 

AI: after being very, very negative -- or seeming to be very, very negative, last week -- Jim Cramer seems to be completely different this morning. Whoo-hoo!

Chatbots: by market share, link here. Top six (DeekSeek is number 7 by market share):

  • ChatGPT: 61%
  • Google Gemini: 15%
  • Microsoft Copilot ("clippy"): 13%
  • Perplexity: 6%
  • Claude: 5%
  • Grok: <1%

The big three: according to Jim Cramer -- Gemini, OpenAI, Anthropic --> Google, ChatGPT, Claude.  

  • Claude (Anthropic): software engineers; for writing code;
  • ChatGPT: conversational; first mover; Grok has better format; no idea which is better but ChatGPT being first mover -- means Grok has a lot of work to do; being associated with Elon Musk doesn't help; best feature: looking for "real-time" responses (that's important; ChatGPT does not do well with breaking news;
  • Gemini: ubiquitous; better format than ChatGPT but not yet conversational; no back-and-forth, as far as I know.

[A day later, December 23, 2025: over at x: link here.] 

Chatbots: biggest question -- how does Apple shake out? A day later, link here:

Chatbots: this has to catch your attention --

  • Grok, within the universe of x should be doing a whole lot better; do folks not trust Elon Musk?
  • Microsoft and Google: amazing how much they lag considering how "big" their audience is; 
    • just shows how important "first mover" is (ChatGPT). 
    • do folks simply not trust Microsoft? 
    • Google Gemini: just feels like "search" but so much better; but not conversational
  • ChatGPT: seems most human-like of the chatbots of which I follow
  • Grok: my next few AI prompts will go to Grok to see how Grok does with literature; but right now, with <1% market share, Elon Musk is spending a lot of money for very little return (I doubt it bothers him)
  • adult sites: OpenAI -- Sam Altman -- has already opened that door.  

Reddit: it's too bad Reddit is too amateurish for the most part. 

Facebook: too limited but incredibly addictive. If somehow ChatGPT can adopt the best part of "facebook" into its format -- what does that mean? Photos. More personal. ChatGPT's problem: doesn't track individuals. 

Apple: Apple is watching closely. I think folks will be surprised. Apple's approach is completely different from the others. A four-letter word: EDGE. Apple knows me very, very well but won't share my "personality" with anyone else -- but will be able to interweave my story / my life / my finances / my buying habits into its chatbot. 

Amazon: next to Apple, Amazon probably knows me better than any of the others being discussed -- but it's pretty much all "retail." Apple has a much more holistic picture of me as a human being. (And if Apple doesn't, the potential is there.) Again, the four-letter word: EDGE. By the way, I finally get the "EDGE" concept. I'll post a graphic later. The graphic is the "a-ha" moment Tim Cook had!

Nvidia: interestingly enough, he agrees 1000%. This is incredibly timing on Cramer's part -- again. First this: one might spend some time at this link. When I posted it, I said I didn't care if the link was lost. I've changed my mind after Cramer's comments. I will now post the entire note at this link.

Platforms: chips will still get a lot attention, and CEOs will talk about "chips" all the time, but "chips" are quickly become "code" for "platforms -- at Apple and Nvidia. And just like chips -- chips are not created equally -- nor does the word "platform" mean the same thing across the AI / tech universe. Nvidia "platform" is completely different than the Apple "platform." I will continue to use the words interchangeably, but will try to note the difference when it's important.

Costco: Jim Cramer is still very, very, very bullish on Costco. Upset that analysts are negative. If new to investing and you initiated a position in COST earlier this year, it's not been a good year. Now? Maybe. Ticker:


Housing: now priced lower than housing in 2019. 30 million homes with mortgage rates less than 4% --they won't put their houses on the market -- they've got too great a deal/rate.


Meanwhile, Micron:

Monday -- December 22, 2025

Locator: 49761B. 

Disclaimer: see blog's disclaimer. Posted multiple locations on the blog. Most important: there are always lots of typographical and/or content errors. If found, they are corrected. If something looks wrong, it probably is. The purpose of this site is to help me keep track of what's going on. I have a very poor memory. Years ago I decided to open it to others. 

Flu: looks like my flu shot was perfectly timed! LOL. In The New York Times this morning. Link here. My experience here.

The big three: according to Jim Cramer -- Gemini, OpenAI, Anthropic --> Google, ChatGPT, Claude.  

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $57.92. Relative large jump due to news coming out of Venezuela.

New wells being reported this week:

  • Monday, December 22, 2025: 53 for the month, 176 for the quarter, 759 for the year,
    • 41701, conf, Marlo Operating, TOSCO Branch 5, 
    • 41106, conf, Devon Energy, Helling 16-21 2H, 
    • 40971, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 8H, 
  • Sunday, December 21, 2025: 50 for the month, 173 for the quarter, 757 for the year,
    • 40968, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 4H, 
    • 40935, conf, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-9,
  • Saturday, December 20, 2025: 48 for the month, 171 for the quarter, 755 for the year,
    • 41690, conf, CLR, Sibbern Federal 4-22H, 
    • 41279, conf, Hess, BB-Rice-LW-150-95-07H-1,
    • 41014, conf, Devon Energy, L And E 9-4 2H, 

RBN Energy: a renewed push for tighter gas-electric coordination as potential crises loom. Link here. Archived.

There are widely differing views about how much U.S. demand for electricity may rise over the next few years due to the emergence of AI and large-scale data centers and how much that may impact demand for natural gas. But there’s across-the-board agreement that (1) the electric and gas sectors are more intertwined and interdependent than ever and (2) electric-grid reliability will suffer if more isn’t done to ensure gas-fired plants get the fuel they need when they need it. Now, after years of mostly tinkering around the edges, real action on gas-electric coordination looks to be at hand, thanks to a new push by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and the National Petroleum Council (NPC). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from a new NPC report and why we think it matters.

We’ll start with the big picture on power. The economics of coal- vs. gas-fired generation may still shift month to month and year to year, but natural gas is the undisputed king of power, accounting for well over 40% of the electricity produced in the U.S. in recent years (brown layer in Figure 1 below). Coal, with a roughly 16% share (teal layer) isn’t even #2 or #3 nowadays — those spots now go to hydroelectric and other renewables (blue and orange layers, respectively), with a combined 21%, and nuclear (light-green layer), with 18%. Petroleum (fuel oil/diesel; yellow layer) brings up the rear, with less than 1%. Contrast that with the U.S. generation split back in 2001, when coal accounted for 51% of total production, nuclear was the runner-up at 21% and gas finished third at only 17%.

 

Sunday, December 21, 2025

U-Shaped Horizontal -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49760B. 

Look at this map! Double-U! Two spuds four one-section horizontals!

The well:

  • 41612, F/A, Roundtop 5698-36 2H, Wheelock (northeast of Williston), t--;  cum 136K 10/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20253123944241123376262052568324724
BAKKEN9-202530310363094738442517162387627368
BAKKEN8-202530366763674049144553592731727570
BAKKEN7-20253143528439766433557237513594896
BAKKEN6-2025378303229000

Well of interest:

  • 19209, 539, Neptune Operating, State 1-35H-156-98, Wheelock, t11/10; cum 99K 10/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202531185618985580222701984
BAKKEN9-202528128511795459151401301
BAKKEN8-2025363022787070
BAKKEN7-20250000000
BAKKEN6-20250000000
BAKKEN5-202518166238188211067
BAKKEN4-2025292984792894000168
BAKKEN3-2025313272453224190178
BAKKEN2-2025253552453754600266
BAKKEN1-2025152532474743310224

It's 1000% The Clinton Files -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49759THECLINTONFILES. 

During the Obama-Biden administrations, who was the only woman powerful enough to prevent the files from being released?

From x:

Who was the president in 1996?

So far, he's the only president seen in a photograph on Epstein's island swimming in a pool with a woman whose face has been "redacted."

****************************
Brown University

Amazing how fast this story disappeared from the front pages. 

Maybe It's Just Me But It Certainly Feels Like We're Seeing Some Adulting In DC -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49758MIDEAST. 

If there is adulting in DC, one can give the credit to President Trump. 

Link here

************************
A Third Tanker

Link here

Nvidia Free Cash Flow -- COTD -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49757NVDA. 

Before getting to the chart, one might spend some time at this link. If the link is lost, that's fine. It's simply extolling the advantages Nvidia holds over the rest: "one ring to rule the rest."

Chart of the day -- Nvidia -- again. 

Link here

*****************************
GOOG: One-Half Billion Dollars Every Day
Is Anyone Paying Attention?


Link here

*********************
CSCO

*********************
Goldman And Chips

Link here

Global Warming, Ocean Reefs, New Species -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49756GLOBALWARMING. 

You can't have it both ways. 

For as long as I've been blogging I've been reading two stories:

  • reefs are dying due to global warming; and,
  • human activity is leading to the sixth mass extinction.

Now this, link here.


From the linked article:

Scientists believe they have discovered at least 20 new species in a deep part of the Pacific Ocean.

The discoveries were found after researchers from the California Academy of Sciences retrieved 13 reef monitoring devices that had been placed in deep coral reefs in Guam, which had been collecting data since 2018. The devices, known as autonomous reef monitoring structures or ARMS, were placed up to 330 feet below the surface, an area of the ocean that receives little light.

Over two weeks in November, scientists retrieved 2,000 specimens, finding 100 species in the region for the first time. Luiz Rocha, California Academy of Sciences Ichthyology curator, told NPR after more analysis is completed, scientists expect to discover more than 20 new species. Rocha was also part of the diving exhibition that placed and retrieved the devices.
It gets tedious. 

Intel's Future Hangs In The Balance -- At The Fulcrum? The Intel Fab In Arizona -- Great Chip But No Customer -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49755INTEL. 

Fabs were most recently updated here

Intel's future in the balance -- depends on Arizona fab. Link here.

This is where it's important to understand "chips." From my perspective, Apple was the first to see this. Non-quantum chips are reading their physical limits; now, it's how they package CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs.  

Everything Suggests This Minnesota Fraud Story Is Going To Be A Much Bigger Story Than Anyone Could Have Imagined -- But Is It Really? December 21, 2025

Locator: 49754MINNESOTA. 

Literally, on a global basis, Minnesota literally opened its coffers to anyone who wanted / needed cash.

ATM on steroids.

It will be interesting if "they" start looking for a fraud that was even bigger.

This is truly amazing.

Minnesota has a two-year budget.

Most recently, a slight surplus. Going into the next two-year cycle, Minnesota was already projecting a slight deficit due to increased health care costs, other items, and that was before the fraud, which is conservatively estimate at $2 billion; now estimates upwards of $9 billion, suggesting it could hit $10 billion because folks don't want to be accused of hyperbole. 

Minnesota's two-year budget runs about $60 billion ($30 billion / year), so $10 billion / $30 billion is absolutely unimaginable. Or is it? Depends how long the fraud has been going on.

Governor Walz seems absolutely out of his element. A high school assistant football coach? Is that correct?  

Later: I just spent quite a bit of time with ChatGPT to try to put this scandal in perspective. It's interesting. Two takeaways:

  • yes, it's huge; can't be sugar-coated; it's huge;
  • at the end of the day -- it will simply become a political story. Apparently Medicare fraud is so bad -- the argument simply becomes "everyone does it (every state has challenges with Medicare fraud)" -- "we identified the problem" and stopped it" -- "it's the cost of doing business; overall Medicare is well run and every so often there will be a scandal -- in it's own way -- no worse than the $600 hammers or $600 toilets contracted the Department of Defense. 

And, so we move on. 

Oh, one last thought. If it simply gets down to "it's the cost of doing business," Minnesota is in good shape. Let's say at worse it comes out to a "$10-billion scandal." That's how much Warren Buffett / Berkshire Hathaway paid for OxyChem and in the big picture, it didn't even affect the BRK cash hoard -- currently about $385 billion. 

It's a political story.

Other frauds:

  • Enron (2001) -- corporate accounting fraud -- $70 billion in assets / market impact
  • WorldCom (late 1990s - early 2000s) -- accounting fraud -- $11 billion
  • Madoff Ponzi schemed (2008) -- investor fraud -- $60 billion

The largest government-related welfare / benefits fraud cases in US history:

  • 2025 National Health are Fraud Takedown -- $14.6 billion alleged
  • Operation Gold Rush (2025) -- $10 billion alleged in one scheme
  • DOJ Health Care Fraud Takedown (2018) -- $2 billion in billed fraud
  • Philip Esformes Medicare Fraud Case -- $1 billion
  • HCA (Columbia / HCA) settlements -- $1.7 billion recovered

And, so we move on. These comparisons have been of great help. It explains why a lot of folks I've talked with down here in Texas are unaware of the Minnesota Medicare scandal or don't care. 

This will be the narrative: