Number Of Active Rigs Trending Down In North Dakota -- August 15, 2017

Active rigs:

$47.24↓↓	8/15/2017	08/15/2016	08/15/2015	08/15/2014	08/15/2013
Active Rigs	56	31	74	194	185

RBN Energy: an update of Sabine Pass LNG exports.

Natural gas deliveries for export via Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG terminal in Louisiana reached a record in late July, topping 2.5 Bcf/d. In the first seven months of 2017, exports have added an average of 1.5 Bcf/d — or more than 300 Bcf total — of baseload gas demand year on year. Thus far, the terminal has been operating with three liquefaction trains. Now the fourth train, which would bring on another 650-MMcf/d of potential export demand, is nearing completion. The incremental gas deliveries are scheduled to come just as winter heating season is kicking off and likely will tighten the gas market. Today, we look at the latest developments at the terminal.

As Cheniere pointed out last week in its second-quarter earnings call, its Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal — the first U.S. Lower-48 LNG export facility — has quickly become the biggest single-use recipient of natural gas in the U.S. The rising tide of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the U.S. began with a ripple in February 2016, when the first LNG cargo left Sabine's dock.

Since then, the latest numbers from Genscape’s North American LNG Supply & Demand data show that Sabine Pass has exported 156 cargoes from the first three of its six planned liquefaction trains, the equivalent of about 520 Bcf of natural gas, assuming all cargoes were loaded to capacity. Nearly a fourth of the shipped cargoes (37) went to Mexico. Another 34 cargoes, or 22%, went to Asia, primarily to South Korea, Japan and China.

The third-largest destination was South America, with 31 cargoes (20%) received to date, mostly by Chile. The Middle East and Europe have received about 20 cargoes (14%) each. Another nine (6%) went to India; and the remaining cargoes were one- and two-offs to Egypt and the Dominican Republic, respectively. Cheniere kicked off its 20-year sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with Korea Gas Corp. (KOGAS) for Train 3 production in June 2017, and as of this month, it had also delivered its first commercially contracted volumes from Train 2 to Gas Natural Fenosa and BG Gulf Coast LNG.

Glut? US shale output seen posting 9th straight monthly rise.

U.S. shale oil production for September which includes a new regional data input, is forecast to rise by 117,000 barrels per day to 6.15 million bpd, its ninth consecutive monthly rise -- EIA.
The total forecast figure has expanded to include the Anadarko region, a growing and prolific shale play that has the second-most operating rigs, at 129, after the Permian's 373, according to the EIA's monthly drilling productivity report.

The EIA added that the region has become "the target of many producers using improved drilling and completion technology to this already well-established oil and gas producing basin."

Meanwhile, the EIA is combining the Marcellus and Utica regions into a new Appalachia region to help the precision of its productivity estimates.

Without the addition, total shale output for September would have been forecast to rise by 106,000 bpd to 5.69 million bpd.

In the Permian Basin, oil output is set to rise by 64,000 bpd to 2.6 million bpd. In the Eagle Ford, oil output is forecast to rise by 14,000 bpd to 1.39 million bpd.

In North Dakota's Bakken, oil production is expected to rise by 10,000 bpd to 1.05 million bpd. [Memo to self: send note to Art Berman.]

DUCs in the Permian: according to John Kemp over at Twitter, 485 wells drilled in the Permian in July, but only 350 were completed. The number of DUCs in the Permian now stand at 2,330, compared to about 900 in the Bakken. If the ratio of DUCs to shut-in wells in the Permian is similar to the ratio in the Bakken, there could be as many as 4,000 shut-in wells in the Permian. This is not good news for US shale companies, but is terrifying news for the Saudis.