Thursday, April 13, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, T+82 -- April 13, 2017

Four Pinocchios: IEA says global oil market nears balance even as stock rise -- Reuters. When you look at the following graph (posted yesterday, Bloomberg), note:
  • does one really believe the US was the only country stockpiling crude when the price plunged?
  • compare the nearly stable level of crude inventories between 2011 and 2014, and where we are now
  • OPEC/NOPEC cuts agreed upon: less than 2 million bopd
  • US crude oil production in 2012: 6.5 million bbls
  • US crude oil production in 2017: 9.0 million bbls
  • US crude oil production in 2018, forecast: 9.9 million bbls
  • unless the drawdown yesterday was the beginning of a trend, and the upcoming drawdowns are "huge," it will be fascinating to see US crude oil inventories get back to 2015 levels, and at 450 million bbls that's still 100 million bbls more than what it was in 2012
Meanwhile the price of gasoline continues to rise.

OPEC balancing: it's important to look at the x-axis in the graphic below. If you can see signs of re-balancing in the graph you are doing better than I:

COP: to sell San Juan Basin interests; $3 billion; buyer - Hilcorp Energy; COP on track to divest more than $16 billion of assets in 2017. I track the San Juan here. Bloomberg's feature story on Hilcorp Energy.

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