Monday, June 6, 2022

9:20 P.M. Central Time, North Texas -- June 6, 2022

Poolside: feels like 95°F. Smartphone says it's 88°F. LOL.

Family of three youngsters in the pool; mom watching; dad barbecuing.

  • beautiful, beautiful evening
  • my wife wanted fresh watermelon for dessert
    • I hopped on my bike, four minutes to Albertson's; one minute in the store; three minutes home
  • she's having watermelon; I'm poolside with adult beverage (ice water -- no alcohol)

Memorial Day?

  • I believe this data includes Memorial Day weekend; we'll know more later this week
  • link here
  • based on his tweets, I don't believe GasBuddy saw this coming:

Lights on; no problems with the Texas grid.

  • Texas grid, capacity, 91,000 MW with lots of solar and wind
  • record demand likely to be broken this week: 75,000 MW (forecast; that would be a record)
  • huge delta between 75K MW and 91K MW
  • forecast for lots of sun and lots of wind
    • grid may not hold, but rolling brownouts / blackouts in the summer are a non-problem compared with same during the winter; but it will still get a lot of press 
    • for me, a rolling brownout / blackout and I'm in the pool
  • refrigerator re-stocked with beverages of all kinds, and lots of them
  • natural gas trending toward $10 / "unit" -- we don't have natural gas; all electricity
  • so, we'll see

Natural gas:

  • 13-year high: link to Tom Kool
  • traders expect "blistering hot summer"
  • Greta et al were warming us all this time about blistering hot summers; why didn't we prepare.
  • actually some of us did; we kept accumulating shares of natural gas companies for the past decade;
  • this was not rocket science

Biden keystoned America.

  • one can name at least six specific actions President Biden has taken that have led to record-high energy prices, starting with the most incredible one -- killing the Keystone XL that would have brought cheap oil to US refineries along the Texas/Louisiana coast:
    • instead he's going to Saudi Arabia, to beg again;
  • story everywhere
  • story not being told is that on top of everything else, the trip has been delayed at least a month;
  • Saudi wouldn't take his phone calls earlier this year and apparently the prince had trouble working Biden into his busy schedule
  • having said all that, oil is no longer the issue; it's refining capacity and the 1-2-3 or 1-3-2 crack spread

Golf: part of the prince's schedule is getting LIV off the ground;

  • Phil Mickelson has joined, apparently offered a $200 million signing fee (this needs to be fact-checked; I honestly don't remember --- and don't care)
    • apparently now sees golf as a "blood sport," literally and figuratively
  • will play "London" this weekend
  • few will watch; those that do, won't care
  • apparently Ricky Fowler will play London also
    • Fowler has had an incredibly bad year; explains why he's going to the LIV, if, in fact, he's going; I really don't know the situation --- and don't care.

Market:

  • oil edges lower after topping $120 / bbl
  • eight energy stocks hit all-time highs
  • those that didn't are flirting with all-time highs
  • most surprising: EOG down during the day but then more than made up for it after hours
  • MNRL: ditto, one of the more interesting energy trades
  • DVN: hit an intra-day 52-week high

Baby formula story

Beef-packing plant:

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