Updates
Original Post
2018 US Crude Oil Production
Global Demand
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NOG
4Q17 Update
Later, 3:47 p.m. CT: there it is -- WTI closed above $58 today; closed at about $58.05. Whoo-hoo.
Later, 11:44 a.m. CT: earlier this morning when WTI was about $57.77 I asked whether we would see $58-WTI by the end of the year. At the moment, "we" are three pennies from $58-WTI. Just saying.
Later, 11:44 a.m. CT: earlier this morning when WTI was about $57.77 I asked whether we would see $58-WTI by the end of the year. At the moment, "we" are three pennies from $58-WTI. Just saying.
2018 US Crude Oil Production
Global Demand
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NOG
- raising fourth quarter production guidance; now expecting average daily production to increase by 4% to 6% over third quarter 2017, compared to prior guidance indicating flat sequential production at the mid-point
- now expect to add approximately 5 to 6 net wells to production during the fourth quarter resulting in 2017 net well additions of approximately 15 to 16 net wells
- fourth quarter oil differential expected to improve by $1.50 per barrel versus the mid-point of prior guidance; now expecting a ( $5.00 ) per barrel of oil differential for the quarter
- wells in process have increased by 6.6 net wells during 2017, from 13.4 net wells as of December 31, 2016 to 20 net wells as of November 30, 2017
- the Board has approved a preliminary 2018 capital budget of up to $176 million , which contemplates 20 to 22 net wells added to production during 2018
- based on this preliminary budget, 2018 annual production is expected to increase by 10% to 14% when compared to 2017
- the Board is also targeting a 10% to 15% reduction in general and administrative expenses when compared to 2017 levels
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Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
2018 budget announced, links everywhere including Forbes. Data points:
- highest budget ever; $261 billion vs $250 billion in 2017
- to balance budget in only six years
- only six European countries have larger budgets than Saudi Arabia (does not include Russia)
- suffered recession in 2017; GDP dropped 5%
- had planned to accelerate smaller subsidies but have now extended them; e.g., gasoline subsidies; see Bloomberg link;
- has never collected personal income taxes; will now implement new fees and taxes, most notably a value-added tax
- the budget does not provide the price of oil the country used when establishing the budget, but outside analysts suggest $50 - $55 will cover the budget
Will freeze more bank accounts. Link at Bloomberg.
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Active rigs:
$57.77↑ | 12/20/2017 | 12/20/2016 | 12/20/2015 | 12/20/2014 | 12/20/2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Active Rigs | 54 | 41 | 64 | 182 | 192 |
RBN Energy: Alberta gas producers, prices dogged by oversupply, transportation constraints.
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