Crude Spread (Brent/WTI) Volatility Could Mean US Refineries Reaching Capacity -- Citi at Platts

Crude spread volatility could mean refineries are reaching capacity limits -- Platts.

The current volatility of crude oil spreads like Brent/WTI and Brent/LLS are a sign that, when it comes to light, sweet crude in the US, refining capacity limits are being reached, Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup, said Friday.

At a press event for the release of Citi's annual market review, Morse was asked whether the US will soon run out of refining capacity as US production of crude oil continues at a high pace.

"Broadly, we think there is growing investment in capacity to move beyond what we currently identify," he said.

Morse said his research group had identified 700,000 b/d of clear capacity to refine more light crude than is currently being done.

"The 700,000 b/d is less than the 1.1 million b/d of growth in the system as a whole," he said. "But there is about 300,000 b/d of new investment to increase capacity to run light crude."

Morse noted that Citi does not have a full view of the 8 million b/d US Gulf Coast refining system "because we don't know about two very large refiners [there] and their capacity. We assumed it's about the same as comparable facilities."

By 2015, Morse said, the volatility in crude spreads currently seen as refiners go in and come out of maintenance periods will reach a limit.

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I hate to sound like a broken record but when I read these stories I keep coming back to the Delta Airlines story.