Monday Morning Links, News, And Views -- Part I

Active rigs: 179

RBN Energy: a review of Canada's western CBR infrastructure --

The battle between pipeline and rail transport alternatives to get growing crude supplies out of Western Canada is heating up. On Thursday (August 1, 2013) TransCanada confirmed plans to proceed with repurposing their Mainline gas pipeline into the Energy East crude pipeline that will now carry up to 1.1 MMb/d from Alberta to Eastern Canadian refiners and the export market. A day earlier Kinder Morgan and Keyera announced plans to build a unit train loading terminal in Alberta to increase crude by rail capacity to the US. Today we review Canadian rail infrastructure investment plans.

Reuters provides more background to TransCanada's proposed eastern pipeline. This is a huge story. Will get a stand-alone post.Previously reported from a different source.

How many decades have folks been predicting the demise of the oil industry? The Economist does it again.

Oil is close to a peak. This is not the “peak oil” widely discussed several years ago, when several theorists, who have since gone strangely quiet, reckoned that supply would flatten and then fall. We believe that demand, not supply, could decline. In the rich world oil demand has already peaked: it has fallen since 2005. Even allowing for all those new drivers in Beijing and Delhi, two revolutions in technology will dampen the world’s thirst for the black stuff.

The first revolution was led by a Texan who has just died. George Mitchell championed “fracking” as a way to release huge supplies of “unconventional” gas from shale beds. This, along with vast new discoveries of conventional gas, has recently helped increase the world’s reserves from 50 to 200 years. In America, where thanks to Mr Mitchell shale gas already billows from the ground, liquefied or compressed gas is finding its way into the tanks of lorries, buses and local-delivery vehicles. Gas could also replace oil in ships, power stations, petrochemical plants and domestic and industrial heating systems, and thus displace a few million barrels of oil a day by 2020.

The other great change is in automotive technology. Rapid advances in engine and vehicle design also threaten oil’s dominance. Foremost is the efficiency of the internal-combustion engine itself. Petrol and diesel engines are becoming ever more frugal. The materials used to make cars are getting lighter and stronger. The growing popularity of electric and hybrid cars, as well as vehicles powered by natural gas or hydrogen fuel cells, will also have an effect on demand for oil. Analysts at Citi, a bank, calculate that if the fuel-efficiency of cars and trucks improves by an average of 2.5% a year it will be enough to constrain oil demand; they predict that a peak of less than 92m b/d will come in the next few years. Ricardo, a big automotive engineer, has come to a similar conclusion.

The author lives on a different planet than where I live.

However, it is getting more and more expensive to produce that oil. TulsaWorld is reporting:

That makes this new oil far more expensive to get out of the ground than what's known as conventional oil - large pools of oil and gas in relatively easy-to-drill locations. Those reserves have always been hard to find, but now they are all but gone outside of the Middle East.

David Vaucher, who tracks oil production operating costs at IHS CERA, says oilfield operation costs are now at a record high. "The fields are more remote and the resource conditions are more extreme," he says.

New oil projects in the U.S. and Canada, where production is growing faster than anywhere in the world, require high oil prices to be profitable, Vaucher says.

To make an industry average return, a new production project in the Canadian oil sands requires a price of $81 per barrel. For an onshore U.S. field, it's $70 per barrel, but it ranges from $45 to $95 per barrel, depending on the rate of oil flow. In the Gulf of Mexico, it's $63. In the Middle East, just $23 per barrel.
But major oil companies such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and BP were late to get into the U.S. shale oil game, and therefore had to pay high prices to acquire promising land. And the drilling is hugely expensive, too. Because the oil is thinly dispersed and hard to squeeze out, dozens of wells must be systematically drilled over an area to get to the oil.

Drillers are making technological leaps that are reducing some costs, but those are being countered by higher costs to lease equipment, buy supplies and pay workers.

Smaller oil companies like EOG Resources and Continental Resources that found these troves early were able to acquire the best acreage for relatively low prices. Because oil production is rising for these smaller companies, profits can rise even if costs increase. For a major oil company like Exxon or Shell, even big increases from dozens of wells in Texas or North Dakota aren't enough to make up for declining production in giant fields around the globe.