These are some data points from the New York Times, a month before the mid-term elections, regarding the recession:
- At the current rate of job creation, it will take nine (9) more years to recapture jobs lost during the recession. This does NOT account for the five or six million jobs needed in that time to keep pace with an expanding population. Comment: minorities will experience the greatest growth in population during the next decade. Is 10% unemployment the new "normal"? Will there be a generation of men and women who never have a career?
- Median house prices have dropped 20 percent since 2005; current inflation estimates suggest it will take 13 years for housing prices to climb back to their peak. Comment: perhaps folks will buy houses to live in, not flip.
- Commercial vacancies continue to soar; it will take a decade to absorb the excess in many of the largest cities. Assuming a robust growth rate, it will take Atlanta (Georgia) twelve (12) years to absorb excess commerical space. Comment: perhaps innovative folks will find a way to turn some of these properties into low-cost housing for the indigent, the homeless, the abused, the poor, the lower-middle class. Businesses that survive are going to save money on brick-and-mortar costs.
- Consumers are afraid to spend. Comment: banks are being asked to improve their balance sheets. Perhaps consumers saving more will help. Consumers will spend on what they want; there will be tectonic shifts in spending. Look for smaller homes, and more technology in those homes.
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