Monday, April 5, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Monday Afternoon Edition -- WTI Plummets -- April 5, 2021

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China coal: not sure if this ever got posted. If so, re-posting:

A lot of interesting data points. Link to the article here.

China generated 53% of the world's total coal-fired power during 2020, the only G20 nation to see a major increase in its coal-fired generation. 
The Chinese Problem: Despite China's installation of 71.7 gigawatts (GW) of wind power and 48.2 GW of solar energy last year, coupled with the Chinese government's pledge to reduce its coal dependency, the country nonetheless saw its coal-fired generation increase by 77 terawatt-hours (TWh) from its 2015 level of (sic) 44%, according to a report from the London-based energy and climate research organization Ember.
Did Phil mean to say that China's coal-fired generation has increased by almost half since 2015? If so, wow.

Back to Oil


  • WTI: now, a 5-handle commodity; trading at $58.65; dropped almost 5%:
  • Brent: down four percent today; trading at $62.28;
  • how long have we been at $60; Saudi can't make it on $60;
  • driving the market
    • fear vs greed
    • fundamentals vs emotion
    • what it comes down to: Memorial Day weekend, 2021, gasoline demand, will "tell the story" 
    • if the tea leaves suggest robust driving season, "Katie, bar the doors."

Markets: may or may not have hit new all-time records, but some great moves --

  • Dow: up 1.13%; up 374 points; yes, CNBC says it's an all-time high;
  • S&P 500: up 1.44%; up 58 points; solidly above 4,000 at 4,078;
  • NASDAQ: up 1.67%; up 225 points; at 13,706

Quick look:

  • UNP: up 1.48%; up $3.26; trading at $223;
  • BRK-B: up 1.74%; up $4.46; trading at $263
  • AAPL: up 2.36% -- who wudda thought -- up $2.90; trading at $126
  • FB: despite Motley Fool saying "no" to Facebook, it hit an all-time record today;
  • four major pipeline companies "held" despite drop in WTI;
  • MNRL: dropped during the day; but up slightly after the market closed
  • WMT: up almost 3%; up $3.81; looking forward to all that stimulus money being spent on tennis shoes;

Futures: after-hours, still green. FOMO, YOLO, YASNY.

Headlines: US economy unbeatable -- Texas may be even better --

  • GMC Hummer EV SUV Edition 1 reservations sold out in ten minutes
  • TSLA's "green tidal wave" could send stock to $1,000
  • Elon Musk calls for "urgent" need to build more housing in Austin, TX

Back to the Bakken

Pipeline, link here. This news comes even as the DAPL remains in limbo. Big headline; another little story.

From the linked article:

Bakken natural gas flows onto Northern Border Pipeline are starting to show slight declines, signaling a reverse of the ever-growing gains seen over the last few years, allowing for the possibility of more exports from Western Canada into the US Midwest this summer.

A slight dip in Bakken production opened space for Western Canada gas exports along Northern Border, but more space is expected to come in the months ahead.

Bakken Shale production began declining marginally April 1, 2021,  to 2 Bcf/d from 2.1 Bcf/d the seven days prior, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.

Sample data for the Williston in North Dakota shows nearly identical swings, to 2.1 Bcf/d from 2.2 Bcf/d.

As a result, the basin sent less gas on Northern Border. Bakken flows on Northern Border fell to just 1.7 Bcf/d April 1 through April 4, the lowest it has been since February 19, 2020, when extreme cold caused production curtailments.

Northern Border transports gas from Western Canada and the Bakken to markets in the US Upper Midwest.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1244625849

No new permits.

Three oil and gas permits renewed:

  • NP Resources: three Gracie State permits, all in Billings County.


  1. Goldman is so full of it. Jeff Curie is predicting $80 Brent in 3Q21 on TV talk shows. The strip shows Brent at $61.xx in SEP21

    1. Agree 1000%. If we see $80-oil in September, I’ll buy all paid subscribers a steak dinner! LOL!

    2. Just for the record, I have no paid subscribers.

    3. And for the record, I may miss a lot of these television interviews. I literally have no television at all for awhile. I will listen to the NCAA championship game on the radio tonight. Old school.