Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The Market And Energy Page, T+222 -- August 30, 2017 -- Wow: Look At Jobs Report! Look At Revised 2Q17 GDP -- Making America Great!

Holy cow! Making American great. Jobs report today. ADP employment report to be reported later. Forecast: US added 185,000 jobs in August. Actual: holy cow! 237,000 jobs added in August. Steve Liesman, CNBC seems awestruck, blown away. Doesn't understand where jobs are coming from. Talking head: "can't last forever." [I believe I  heard that same quote last month.] In addition, the July number was revised higher, up 23,000 to 201,000. And now they are saying the initial August figures tend to be on the light side and are generally revised upward. Wow. And in a very long CNBC segment, Trump administration not mentioned. In fact, Steve Liesman specifically said he did not want to talk politics.

GDP. Making America great. Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — August 25, 2017.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on August 25, down from 3.8 percent on August 16.
The forecast of third-quarter real GDP growth fell 0.3 percentage points to 3.5 percent after the Federal Reserve Board's industrial production report on August 17 and the forecast of third-quarter real residential investment growth fell from 3.4 percent to –0.4 percent following the housing market data releases on August 23 and 24. The forecast of third-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 6.4 percent to 8.1 percent after this morning's durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Harvey effect on GDP: talking head on CNBC says Harvey will not affect national data.

GDP: revised 2Q17 estimate -- was 2.6; estimate of 2.7 or 2.8 percent. Actual -- 3%!. Wow. Steve Liesman admits that positive business attitude from Trump administration "could account" for some of this. Did CNBC say that 3% in the 2Q is the best for that quarter in two years? I thought I heard that but I was making waffles and might have misheard.

10-year Treasuries: 2.1149

Oh-oh: Norway's Arctic oil ambitions suffer as most promising well is a dud. From Reuters:
Norway's hope of discovering a large oilfield in the Barents Sea has suffered a major setback after the far north Arctic's most promising reservoir turned out to contain only small amounts of natural gas.
Statoil, the country's top oil and gas producer, has stepped up drilling in the Barents Sea this year as the government seeks to attract more explorers to its Arctic waters to make up for declining North Sea output.
But Statoil said on Tuesday that after drilling the northernmost exploration well in the highly anticipated Korpfjell prospect it had found only non-commercial quantities of gas and no oil.
Korpfjell was the first exploration well drilled in the Norwegian section of a formerly disputed area between Norway and Russia, where Statoil and its partners had hoped to make a major discovery.
On the ropes: Russia's Gazprom 2Q17 net income drops 80% y-o-y; misses forecast. From Reuters.

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