An Update On Nigeria -- December 15, 2014

Regular readers are aware of the Nigerian story. There was one data point I did not know with regard to Nigeria and its oil.

A pundit, about ten days ago, that the Saudi action (or inaction) will cause more harm to west Africa than Ebola.

An earlier story suggested that Nigeria's oil exports to the US appear to be headed toward 0.000 bbls/day.

The question on everyone's mind. I did not know the answer. What percent of oil that comes from Africa comes from Nigeria? It looks like that percentage could head to zero also. Unlikely, but the future is grim. Historically, Nigeria accounts for one-fourth of all oil that is produced (produced, but not necessarily exported) from Africa. One-fourth.

An update, Bloomberg is reporting:

Nigeria’s two oil unions began an indefinite strike that they say will curb exports from the West African nation responsible for pumping more than a quarter of the continent’s crude.

Any reduction in pumping would coincide with a collapse in the price of Nigeria’s biggest source of revenue. Brent crude oil plunged 44 percent this year. It rose as much as 2.3 percent to $63.25 a barrel in London today. Nigeria needs about twice that to balance its budget, according to estimates in October from Deutsche Bank AG.

“We do not expect the strike to have a material impact on Nigeria’s oil production, certainly not in the early days,” Philippe de Pontet, New York-based Eurasia Group’s Africa director, said in an e-mailed statement today.

Okay.

But if they need $126-oil to balance their budget, it seems they were spending outlandishly to begin with.

By the way, it's never said what it means when a country says it needs "$xx-oil" to balance its budget. Does that figure, on any give day, take into account the cumulative loss of income during a price collapse? A country's budget is an "annual" thing, not a daily thing. If Nigeria needs oil to be priced on average of $126 over the course of the year, the price is going to have to get a lot higher to average out the current $62.

OPEC chief says "the" ministers of OPEC voted for the new policy that resulted in the plunge of the price of oil. I wonder if the Nigerian minister was one of those ministers? If so, I wonder if he is still Nigeria's minister of oil? Actions have consequences.

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Is It Just Me?

I used to do a feature, titled "Is It Just Me....?"

It looks like I might have to resurrect the series.

Following up on the earlier story regarding Barbara Walter's most fascinating people of 2014, this is one of the reasons she chose Mrs. Clooney, as reported by USA Today:

Walters called the wedding "perfect," particularly pointing out Amal's hat and the wedding dress designed by the late Oscar De La Renta, according to ABC News.

Since I seldom watch television except for sports (I saw Dallas Cowboys destroy the Philadelphia Eagles last night), I won't see this interview. If the hat is mentioned in the interview, please let me know.

And to think some folks are worried about waterboarding. OMG.