Some random data points from three Bakken oil execs on the last day of the May 22 - 24, 2012, Bismarck Bakken Conference.
Link to Bismarck Tribune. Some numbers rounded.
- conference broke its own record the last day of the conference: 4,300
- population of North Dakota: 1 million by 2020 - 2030 (date found at different story); current population: 684,000
- oil production: 1 million bopd by 2015; currently 575,000 bopd
- CLR estimates: 27 to 45 billion bbls of recoverable oil from the Bakken; (back of envelope: 5% recovery of 500 billion bbls OOIP --> 25 billion bbls of recovered oil; so either higher rates of recovery or greater OOIP -- assuming I did the math right; perhaps both: higher rates of recovery and greater OOIP)
- new estimates based on production from two previously untapped "bench zones" in the Bakken
- WLL: expects 500 wells in its Pronghorn Prospect between Dickinson and Belfield; 30 wells now
- WLL: 7 - 10 rigs in the Pronghorn Prospect for the next couple of years
- (back of envelope: 500/3 --> 165 wells/year/10 rigs --> each rig about 16 wells/year; 365/16 --> 22 days to move in, reach total depth, and move out)
- (or, again, back of envelope: 500/4 --> 125 wells/year/10 rigs --> 12 wells/years; one well/month/rig)
- WLL: best financial returns in its history
- WLL: Sanish $7 million wells reach payout in less than a year
- WLL: wells elsewhere are taking a bit longer to reach payout
- WLL: Pronghorn Prospect is expected to be every bit as good as the Sanish
- CLR: expects to see 250 active rigs in ND; currently 200 - 210 (record: 215)
Some interesting quotes:
To find what he calls “Bakken sweet spots,” [WLL/CEO] Volker said, his company
relies increasingly on microscopic analysis of core samples to evaluate
how porous, saturated and permeable formations are.
North Dakota is a learning laboratory for oil development here and in other
states. “North Dakota is helping lead the way,” [MRO executive] Roberts said.
