Finally: The Number of Wells are Increasing

From the McKenzie County Farmer:

In October 1981, the active rig count hit a record high of 146 rigs, and even though the current number is still far from the all-time high, the oil industry is still producing more than those 146 rigs did in 1981.

“From what I hear, we can expect the rig count to increase by 25 percent by late summer [125],” according to Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council. “Nobody knows how high the rig count will get, but I doubt that we have the infrastructure or manpower to support activity near the all-time high for too long. However, we have to remember that today’s drilling rig does what eight rigs could do back in 1982, does it in one-third of the time and is much safer. Therefore, in terms of drilling wells and productivity, we have already surpassed the 1981 level. The technology is truly amazing.”

For the longest time (about six months) the number of wells coming off confidential status has been in the 45 - 55 / month range.

Finally, in August we will see upwards of 67 wells coming off the confidential list.  Here are the numbers this year, so far:

53 wells came off the confidential list in January, 2010.
55 wells came off the confidential list in February, 2010.
65 wells come off the confidential list in March, 2010.
42 wells come off the confidential list in April, 2010.
49 wells come off the confidential list in May, 2010.
50 wells come off the list in June, 2010.

It has been opined that the increase in wells coming off the confidential list early in 2010 was due to number of EOG wells that would have been reported earlier, but were delayed due to delay in fracking.

54 wells come off the confidential list in July, 2010.

I'm surprised we're not yet seeing a jump in number of wells coming off confidential list. In October, 2009, there were only 56 active rigs; in January, 2010, the number of rigs approached 90 rigs, and yet, the number of wells coming off confidential list in January, 2010, was 54, and the number of wells coming off confidential list in July, 2010, is 49. 

67 wells come off the confidential list in August, 2010.

Finally, we see the jump I have been expecting.

Incidentally, with 265 new permits granted in 2010 (as of March 19, 2010), North Dakota is on track to grant 1240 permits in 2010, well above the 626 granted in 2009, and even the 953 granted in 2008, the best year in the current boom.