Friday, March 23, 2018

Random Look At Two Slawson Wells -- Part III -- March 23, 2018

Disclaimer: in a long note like this one, as well as the long notes in Part I and Part II, there will be typographical and factual errors. Facts, comments, and opinions are interspersed and hard to separate or discern. There are a lot of digressions. There is no hidden agenda and no "fake news" -- at least no attempt to post "fake news." I appreciate any fact checking. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Part I here.

Part II here.

The wells under discussion:
  • 19207, 613, Slawson, Vagabond 1-27H, Van Hook, t4/11; cum 358K 1/18;
  • 19208, 800, Slawson, Water Moccasin 4-34-TFH, Van Hook, t4/11; cum 324K 1/18;
The graphics:

  • the two wells under discussion would be very inexpensive to drill / complete today (using same amount of sand)
    • they were short laterals
    • they used small amounts of sand
  • the two wells were mediocre at best when originally drilled
  • neighboring wells drilled / completed -- these wells went from mediocre to pretty good wells
  • data suggests these wells are great candidates for mini-re-fracks and full re-fracks at a later date
  • it's impossible to say whether new wells are "compromising" production from older wells, but in this case, it certainly appears the newer wells had a positive effect on the older, shorter laterals; whether or not new wells are "compromising" older wells across the Bakken is hard to tell; analysts much smarter than I suggest that this is happening
  • there are 7 horizontal wells in this 1280-acre unit (technically 7.5) and only the middle Bakken and the upper bench of the Three Forks have been targeted
  • it's not a stretch to suggest:
    • six middle Bakken horizontals
    • six TF 1 horizontals
    • four TF 2 horizontals
    • four TF 3 horizontals
    • two TF 4 horizontals
  • some suggest we could see eight middle Bakken and eight TF 1 and eight TF 3 horizontals in the same spacing, or 24 wells, which does not include TF 2 or TF 4 horizontals
  • new wells in spacing units (held by production) require no new leasing; most infrastructure is already in place; geologists can practically forecast likely production for new wells
Bottom line:
  • two Bakken wells
  • 58,998 more Bakken wells before it's all over
Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. Some analysts suggest the Bakken is pretty much "done."

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