Active Rig Count 20% Higher Today Than This Date One Year Ago In North Dakota; Twelve Operators Drilling; MRO Reporting A Nice Bailey Field -- May 14, 2021

Director's Cut: scheduled to be released later today. Link here.

Dividends matter: all of a sudden dividends matter. CNBC, 7:47 a.m. CT, May 14, 2021. Something we've been reporting since Apple failed to adequately reward shareholders after their first calendar 2021 blowout earnings.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Never let a crisis go to waste: the value of line space on the Colonial Pipeline rose May 13, 2021, to its highest since February 7, 2020 -- more than a year earlier. Argus Media. 

Vaccine hesitancy: this meme began shortly after April 13, 2021, the day the CDC and Dr Fauci pulled the JNJ vaccine off the market over safety concerns. Interestingly, since then, there have been no reports of "new" blood-clotting cases due to the vaccine. Just like that, the story died. Yesterday, the CDC reported the worse "Thursday data" in ten weeks. Today, Bloomberg's headline story: vaccine hesitancy rose in EU after pause in AstraZeneca shots.

• Eurofound survey finds 34% hesitance after March suspension;
• findings reflect a communication failure, researcher says
• more than a third of adults in the EU indicate they are unlikely to get immunized from Covid-19
• prior to the pause, 25% said they were "rather unlikely" or "very unlikely" to get the vaccine
• Norwasy permanently removed AstraZeneca from the market -- May 12, 2021; sort of takes the wind out of that "communication failure" note

Breakthrough cases: despite being vaccinated; posted previously; the numbers will be significantly worse than what the CDC reports; previously posted;

Apple; 100% green. Whoa, Nelly. Not so fast. The company admits its data centers consume standard blend of coal gas, nuclear, hydro with small amounts of wind and solar mixed in --Forbes. Link here. 

Retail sales: all things being equal, retail sales should "improve" throughout the year unless adjusted for gasoline sales. Monthly retail sales are measured in dollars and cents; gasoline prices rising; we've seen this before; previously posted. Gasoline sales up 2.9% month-over-month, April-over-March. Dow futures reversed direction after today's numbers released

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.59	5/14/2021	05/14/2020	05/14/2019	05/14/2018	05/14/2017
Active Rigs	18	15	65	60	51

Operators with active rigs:

• CLR (5): Gordon Federal, Bang, Candee, Harrisburg, Harms Federal,
• Hess (2): EN-Johnson, GO-Braaten
• MRO (2): Armstrong, Morgan USA
• Rimrock: FBIR Guyblackhawk
• Whiting: Lacey
• Slawson: Mauser Federal
• Enerplus: Marten,
• Iron Oil Operating: Antelope
• Ovintiv: Olson
• Petro-Hunt: Blikre
• Oasis: Cliff Federal
• Crescent Point Energy: CPEUSC Sylven

Two wells coming off the confidential list -- Friday, May 14, 2021: 27 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 129 for the year:

• 37095, 3,194, MRO, Wiest 24-33H, Bailey, t11/20; cum 98K 3/21;
• 36123, drl/NC, Slawson, Stallion 7-1-12H, Big Bend, no production data,

RBN Energy: WaHa natural gas market is going premium, but it may be short-lived.

A lot of people know that Permian natural gas prices have spent many days in negative territory over the last few years, only to skyrocket over $100/MMBtu during the Deep Freeze in February. Those events were mostly viewed as transitory, driven by a chronic lack of pipeline capacity in the former case and a crazy round of arctic weather in the latter. 

It may come as a surprise to hear that forward basis prices for natural gas in the Permian are trading at a premium to Henry Hub for at least some months over the next year or so. How could it be that gas from a supply basin way out in West Texas, where gas is considered a byproduct, trades at a premium? The answer lies in the key infrastructure changes expected in the weeks ahead and a premium in forward basis for the Houston Ship Channel gas market. How long the Texas premiums will last depends on Permian gas production, which is starting to take off again. Today, we aim to explain the latest developments in Permian and Texas natural gas markets.