Tuesday, May 19, 2020

EIA Forecast For May, 2020, Crude Oil / Natural Gas Production -- May 19, 2020

Updates

Later, 11:02 a.m. CT: see comments --
Everyone misses the important part of that report: completions. The completion data is buried in the Excel file titled "DUC data (aggregated by region)" on the sidebar.
In sum, 705 wells were completed and brought into production in April, a decrease of 365 well completions from the 1,070 completions seen in March, and down from the 1,281 completions seen in April last year.
Completions: from the Director's Cut, Bakken completions going back to last year:
  • March, 2020, preliminary: a whopping 120 wells were completed in March, 2020
  • February, 2020, final: 57
  • January, 2020, final: 70 (revised)
  • December, 2019, final: 88 (revised)
    • revenue forecast: 90
  • November, 2019, final: 92
  • October, 2019, final: 102
  • September, 2019, final: 117 (revised up from 94) (revised a second time, up from 112)
  • August, 2019, final: 102
  • July, 2019, final: 137
  • June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
  • May, 2019, 113 (final)
Original Post

Headline: "Permian Basin leads decline in US shale." -- Link here.

Fact check. Link. Graphic:


The problem with the headline and the graphic: no percentages -- just raw data.

With percentages for the three main US shale crude oil plays:
Play: May / June / Change / Percent m-o-m:
  • Bakken: 1,135  / 1,114 / 21 / 1.85% decrease
  • Eagle Ford: 1,210 / 1,174 / 36 / 2.98% decrease
  • Permian: 4,377 / 4,290 / 87 / 1.99% decrease
On a percentage basis, the Eagle Ford is predicted to have the biggest decline m-o-m in crude oil production. The Permian is forecast to come in second, and the Bakken, on a percentage basis, is projected to have the smallest decline.

Natural gas, decline on a month-over-month basis:
  • Eagle Ford:  1.94%
    Permian: 1.3%
  • Bakken: 0.94% (best in show; LOL)



2 comments:

  1. everyone misses the important part of that report; completions...they're buried in the excel file titled "DUC data (aggregated by region)" on the sidebar....in sum, 705 wells were completed and brought into production in April, a decrease of 365 well completions from the 1,070 completions seen in March, and down from the 1,281 completions seen in April last year..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I track DUCs and active wells at this post (http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2018/07/update-on-ducs-july-14-2018.html) but I don't track completions at the same post. I may have to add that data point. Thank you.

      I report the Bakken completions each month (from the monthly Director's Cut).

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