US Crude Oil Production Could Surge To 14 Million BOPD In Two Years -- US DOI -- January 18, 2019

Updates will be delayed this morning: family commitments later this morning.

Global warming hits northern California: massive blizzard; 100 inches of snow possible -- note to self -- memo to Patrick Kennedy ...

ISO New England, link here: spiked to $100/MW; 4% coal; 49% natural gas.

Global warming: Scott Adams re-tweets an interesting link. Finally, someone talks about water vapor as a greenhouse gas.

Connecting the dots: the RBN Energy post today is particularly timely (see below). The US DOI is now predicting that US crude oil production will surge to 14 million bopd -- wasn't the EIA forecast for 12.9 million bopd in 2020? Regardless, from Rigzone today:

With flat demand freeing up even more for export, the U.S. DOI now reports that domestic crude production could surge to 14 MMbpd by 2020.

The U.S. Gulf Coast ports, however, need to be expanded and deepened to fully load the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), some of which can hold over 3 MMbpd.

Currently, there is just one port in the region that can carry a VLCC holding 2 MMbpd.

Overall, U.S. crude exports could reach 5 MMbpd over the next five years.

U.S. policy wise, American consumers should realize that the capacity to export is a good thing. Exports encourage more production in times of flat demand to keep our own prices low. Without the export option, many in the U.S. oil industry could be forced out, and imports would play a larger role. And if more electric cars could eventually lower U.S. oil demand in a significant way, even more crude would be allowed to leave the country.

New season. By the way, who is the Secretary of the US Department of the Interior?

Keeping America great: from Rigzone --  Zheijiang Petrochemical Co. Ltd. (ZPC) will use Honeywell UOP process technology at the world’s largest crude-to-chemicals complex.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, January 18, 2019

• 34196, 1,729, CLR, Radermecher 14-22H2, Three Forks second bench, 62 stages; 10 million lbs; Camel Butte, t10/18; cum 61K 11/18;
• 34010, 1,661, CLR, Radermecher 10-22HSL1, Camel Butte, Three Forks first bench, 62 stages; 15.2 million lbs, t10/18; um 61K 11/18;
• 33778, 878, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 14-27 2TX, Three Forks, 40 stages; 4 million lbs; mesh, medium, ceramic, Willow Creek, t7/18; cum 78K 11/18;
• 33468, 2,456, CLR, Ransom 2-30H, Elidah, t12/18; cum --

Active rigs:

$54.04	1/18/2019	01/18/2018	01/18/2017	01/18/2016	01/18/2015
Active Rigs	68	58	38	49	157

RBN Energy: the renewed significance of the St James crude hub. The Louisiana story --

Throughout the middle and latter parts of the 2010s, crude oil production growth in major U.S. basins and in Western Canada — not to mention the end to the ban on most U.S. crude exports in December 2015 — has caused noteworthy shifts in crude flow patterns, stressed existing pipeline infrastructure, and highlighted the importance of crude storage and distribution hubs. A common theme through all this has been that more and more crude needs to find its way to the Gulf Coast, with its bounty of refineries and export docks. To that end, lately, there’s been a slew of new pipeline and export-terminal projects announced that are tied to the St. James crude trading hub, which is located in Louisiana, about 60 miles up the Mississippi River from New Orleans. Today, we begin a series on St. James and why it’s becoming an even bigger player in crude markets.