Friday, August 17, 2018

Wanna See Some Other Great Wells That Just Reported? -- August 17, 2018

None of these wells had a constrained period. These were all DUCs that came off confidential list in 1Q18 -- and by early 3Q18 they had been completed. This is way faster than what I was seeing during the Saudi Surge, announced late 2014, effects seen early 2015 - early 2017.

None of these wells (at time of reporting) had a full 30 days of production. You can do the extrapolation. For example, that first well, 50,785 bbls in 22 days extrapolates to 69,000 bo in 30 days. Then the NG, 64,104 MCF = 10,688 boe over 22 days extrapolates to 14,556 boe. Add the bo and the NG boe and you get 84,000 boe in 30 days.

I remember some years ago when I was posting "monster wells" that I was cherry-picking. I certainly was. I didn't quite understand the "charge." Regardless, it's now almost impossible to cherry pick. If you doubt me, scroll through the wells that came off the confidential list 1Q18 -- except for a handful they are all completed -- DUCs and all. And the vast majority would be considered monster wells by the criteria used back in 2007.

Also, very few of those wells are using huge fracks. Many are still 45-stage fracks with 7 to 8 million lbs of proppant. Very few are the 60+ stage fracks, 10 million + lbs that CLR now considers its optimized completion strategy.

We're in "Bakken 2.5" but if the wells continue in this manner, I may move to Bakken 3.0.

And in NY state -- every year that goes by that fracking is banned, huge amounts of money being left on the table (or, more correctly, in the ground). My hunch is that New York state is banning fracking for reasons other than concerns about fracking per se. I don't know how well folks know New York state, but "upstate" it is absolutely gorgeous and lots and lots of really, really rich people live there, and millions of average and well-to-do New Jersey folks vacation in upstate New York. My hunch is that "these folks" are very concerned about turning upstate New York into "Saudi Arabia" or "western North Dakota." For that reason, I can't blame them. It's a legitimate concern. The topography between North Dakota and New York is incredibly different; and I strongly believe that North Dakota -- just a few counties at that -- was perfect, on so many levels for the oil industry. I'm not sure that New York state is where they should be drilling if there's more than enough oil and natural gas. It's unfair to the mineral owners, I know, but this is a democracy and compromises have to be made.

Wow, how did I get on that soapbox?

The wells:
  • 33583, 5,694, MRO, Sundby 24-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 51K after 22 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 33443, 4,152, MRO, Marlene 34-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 44K after 25 days;
  • 33435, 4,538, MRO, Hugo 34-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 29K after 13 days;
  • 33582, 5,305, MRO, Morrison 24-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 42K after 16 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 33581, 6,573, MRO, Olea 24-11TFH, Bailey, Three Forks B1, 45 stages; 11.776 million lbs, 262K/stage, t6/18; cum 55K after 22 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 33580, 3,276, MRO, McFadden 14-11H,  Bailey, t6/18; cum 17K after 14 days;

  • 33599, 5,000, MRO, Gravel Coulee 14-11TFH, Bailey, t6/1; cum 42K after 16 days:
  • PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

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