Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Number Of Active Rigs Trending Down In The Bakken -- August 15, 2018

NOTE: it looks like the NDIC Director's cut release date has changed to tomorrow, Thursday, August 16, 2018, at 3:00 p.m. Link here.

The market: Dow is down almost 300 points in early morning trading. I'm not watching CNBC so I don't know what the talking heads are saying:
  • lots of talk recently that the market was getting ahead of itself
  • profit-taking
  • WTI close to breaking through the $66-floor and no suggestion that production is going to change much
  • bitcoin plunging recently (thought today, is up 2.5%)
  • 10-year bond still in trading range below 3% -- around 2.8%
  • Turkey contagion -- yesterday CNBC opined that the market had absorbed Turkish news
  • mid-August; trading doldrums
  • so, someone will have to provide the "30-second elevator" speech why the market is down so much today 
  • WSJ: says it is due to continued trade talk tension; sure!
WTI: eleven cents away from going below $66 which appears to be some kind of "floor" right now

Canada: it can't get a break -- it's only going to get worse; great news for US shale light oil -- rule change cuts demand for Canadian oil -- Bloomberg:
  • 2020: crude oil tankers will have to use low-sulfur oil
  • old story, but for those who did not know where that heavy, sulfur oil was coming from, now they do: Canada
Permian: Diamondback to buy Energen in $9.2 billion deal to boost Permian presence (note spelling error in headline at the link -- this is a Reuters article, based in London -- they may spell the Permian differently in England).
  • 96,900 acres (if I understand the article correctly) 
  • $9.2 billion
  • works out to about $95,000/acre
  • the article doesn't specifically say 96,900 acres and the article doesn't say "net" or "gross" acres, but generally these sales are figured in "net" acres
US retail sales increase strongly in July. FoxBusiness
  • rose more than expected in July
  • retail sales increased 0.5% 
  • analysts had expected 0.1%
  • year-over-year, retail sales have increase 6.4%
  • data for June was revised to 0.2%, down from 0.5%
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Apple roundup:
  • Apple still has a long way to go to reach "net cash neutral" -- Motley Fool
    • to become "net cash neutral" will require the company to "dispense" copious amounts of cash in the years ahead
    • considering Apple's cash-generating capabilities, this is going to be tougher than it sounds
    • no it's not
  • posted August 4, 2018, that Berkshire Hathaway had 255 million shares (my estimate)
  • confirmed today: from the AP, Berkshire Hathaway has 252 million shares
  • Berkshire Hathaway keeps buying more AAPL -- The WSJ
  • on a day that the market is plummeting -- the Dow is down almost 300 points -- AAPL shares are down very, very little; down 0.44% in early morning trading
Where are they getting these figures? For breakeven costs --
  • SCOOP: mid-60s
  • Eagle Ford: $48 - $61
  • Bakken: $53 - $56
  • Niobrara: $63
  • Delaware Basin (Permian): $57
  • Midland Permian: $37
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today:
  • 30526, 1,016, CLR, Burr Federal 19-26H, Sanish, 4 sections, Three Forks 1, 63 stages; 15 million lbs, a nice well; t6/18; cum 40K after 38 days; Burr Federal wells are tracked here;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs57563174194

RBN Energy: factors driving SoCal's recent natural gas prices.
A perfect storm of hot weather, transportation constraints and limits on storage use recently sent natural gas prices in Southern California surging to the highest levels seen in that market going back to at least 2007. Spot prices at the SoCal Citygate hub averaged close to $40/MMBtu in late July and were again up over $20/MMBtu last week, levels that were several times higher than the national benchmark Henry Hub — and, for that matter, every other U.S. market hub — on the same day. Prices since then have retreated, but the whipsawing price action raises questions about what’s in store for SoCal this coming winter. Today, we analyze the factors behind the recent record prices and prospects for continued volatility at SoCal.

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