Thursday, February 4, 2016

Jobs -- February 4, 2016; John Kemp's Weekly Energy Tweets

Link here.
  • last week revised down by 1,000 to 278,000
  • most recent week, an increase of 8,000, to 285,000
  • four-week moving average increased by 2,000 to 284,750
Analysts' expectations: only to 280,000; in fact, well past that, surges to 285,000 -- coupled with layoffs -- see below -- it's hard not to be concerned about GDP in 2016. 

Meanwhile, CNBC reports "US layoffs surge to 6-month high. I don't know you spin that. But I'm sure Reuters and Bloomberg will find a way.
Layoffs surged in January to the highest levels since July as employers in the retail and energy sectors pulled out the pink slips, according to a private survey out Thursday.
U.S.-based companies announced 75,114 planned job cuts last month, up more than 200 percent from a 15-year low in December, according to global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That figure was also 42 percent higher from a year ago.
From GDPNow, latest February 1, 2016:
The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.2 percent on February 1. The final model nowcast for fourth-quarter real GDP growth was 1.0 percent, 0.3 percentage points above the advance estimate of 0.7 percent released last Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
John Kemp's weekly energy tweets:
  • employment in US oil and gas extraction and support activitiesindustry fell by 87,000 between October, 2014, and November, 2015
  • US oil and gas industry shed 100,000 jobs in slump
  • oil market will remain oversupplied this year, making price recovery unlikely
  • COP cuts dividend; OXY holds firm
  • difference in inventory levels for crude oil 
  • US: 36% higher than 5-year average
  • Cushing: 58% higher
  • total distillate fuel oil: 16% higher
  • total motor gasoline: 8% higher 

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