Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Producing Wells Completed -- December 9, 2015

One of the more interesting data points for tracking the Bakken may be "producing wells completed." These are wells that had/have been drilled to total depth (including the horizontal segment) but for some reason were not completed at the time they reached total depth. Early in the boom, wells were not completed soon after reaching total depth mostly due to logistical reasons: a shortage of frack spreads or a shortage of sand, for example.

Then, during the peak of the boom, when there waere adequate resources, the fracklog began to grow because of operational reasons. Operators delay fracking on multi-well pads until all wells are drilled; in addition, operations on neighboring wells may affect fracking operations on another pad. There is a slowdown in fracking during the winter but that generally does not occur until January or February.

Starting in October, 2014, operators began drilling to depth but then shutting in the wells due to the low price of oil. In mid-2015, the NDIC gave the operators additional time to complete their wells, no longer holding them to the "one-year rule."

Sometime over the past year of tracking "producing wells completed," it started to become apparent that this might be a useful data point to track to better understand the Bakken.

Right now, I have just some very basic data, but there are some derivative data points yet to be tracked. For example, the wells that are being drilled now and not completed are in the very best spots in the Bakken. In addition, they are being drilled on existing pads and may positively impact production from existing wells.

Here are some basic data points from November, 2015:
  • a total of 40 "producing wells were completed"
  • the IPs were in line with historical IPs
  • BR: 4
  • CLR: 2
  • Enduro: 1
  • Hess: 4
  • Newfield: 3
  • Oasis: 3
  • Petro-Hunt: 3
  • QEP: 4
  • SM Energy: 4
  • Statoil: 4
  • WPX: 2
  • XTO: 6 
Under ideal circumstances, one can argue that a well will be producing oil in the state of North Dakota within six months of a permit being issued. In June, 2015, 193 permits had been issued. It looks like about 60% of wells are going to DUC status, or about 115 wells could have been drilled and placed on SI/NC status. Of those 193, forty were completed. Note: the "40" is an exact number based on daily activity reports. The number of permits issued is an exact number based on daily activity reports. However, the percent of wells placed on SI/NC (DUCs) is an estimate and may be off by a significant amount. But it gives me an idea of what operators are doing in the Bakken.

Permits issued in June, 2015, by operator:
  • BR: 4
  • CLR: 18
  • Crescent Point: 11
  • Denbury: 1
  • Emerald Oil: 7
  • EOG: 34
  • Hess: 19
  • HRC: 8
  • MRO: 3
  • Newfield: 2
  • Oasis: 21
  • Petro-Hunt: 8
  • Samson Resources: 1
  • Sinclair: 3
  • Slawson: 16
  • SM Energy: 7
  • Statoil: 11
  • Whiting: 10
  • XTO: 7
  • Zavanna: 2

No comments:

Post a Comment