RBN Energy: refining margins boom as crude inventory hits the roof.
U.S. crude stocks are at their highest level in over 30 years and the contango market pricing structure continues to encourage increases in the stockpile. No one knows exactly how much storage space remains. The surplus is keeping U.S. crude prices low compared to international rivals but petroleum product prices (gasoline and diesel) are climbing higher, having bounced back from recent lows. Refining margins are sky high as bad weather and outages hamper operations. But as we describe today, the crude surplus remains a dark cloud on the horizon.
According to the Energy Information Administration the nation is officially awash with crude supplies – stocks are up by 62 MMBbl since January 1, 2015, to 444 million bbls at the end of February – highest ever (since EIA started the tally in 1982 – 33 years ago). About 10 million bls of crude was added to inventory between February 20, 2015, and February 27, 2015. The chart in Figure #1 at the link shows total U.S. crude stocks since July 2014 (blue line – flying towards the moon) as well as the 5-year average (red line) and the 5-year range (darker gray area).
The chart shows current levels 25% above the 5-year average and well outside the normal range for this time of year. About half of the inventory is located in the Gulf Coast region (220 MMBbl) and another 33 percent in the Midwest – the two principal refining regions. Depending on the amount of crude that U.S. refineries process (it varied seasonally between 15 and 16 million bopd last year) current crude stocks are enough to supply refineries for between 27 and 30 days – about a month. All of these “commercial” supplies are on top of the 690 MMBbl Federally mandated Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Wells coming off the confidential list will be updated later; I've been out all day and still getting caught up.
Only three (3) new permits --
- Operators: EOG, Enduro, XTO
- Fields: Parshall (Mountrail), Little Deep Creek (Renville), Midway (Williams)
- Comments: pretty dismal
- 29096, 75, Cornerstone, Huff MC-35-6390, one section, a Madison well, t2/15; cum 1K 1/15;
- 23695, 727, Fidelity, Herauf 2-11H, Zenith, Three Forks, t10/14; cum 86K 1/15;
- 24451, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Ruby 17-20-158N-100W, Winner, small production,
- 25856, drl, Statoil, Skarston 1-12 7H, Banks, no production data,
- 26865, 1,604, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-33C-28-8H, McGregory Buttes, unusual production profile, t9/14; cum 64K 1/15;
- 29008, drl, XTO, David Federal 21X-20F, Lost Bridge,
- 29075, dry, St Croix Operating, Preskey 28-3, Wildcat, 28-158-82; this is St Croix's only permit / well in North Dakota.
- 29116, drl, XTO, Frisinger 34X-8H, Hofflund, no production data,
23695, see above, Fidelity, Herauf 2-11H, Zenith, Three Forks:
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26865, see below, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-33C-28-8H, McGregory Buttes:
|Date||Oil Runs||MCF Sold|