The End Game: The ObamaCliff

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If my thesis (see original post) is correct, then certain "things" should follow, as in, certain things should "then occur." In computer code: "if this, then." So, follow the updates, and see if they fit the script of the original post. I will supply my own commentary.

Updates

December 31, 2012: so much for the GOP being the obstacle. "Everyone" was counting on the Democrat-controlled Senate to pass a bill that could be acted upon by the House. But the Senate Dems don't like the proposed Senate bill:

As Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and Vice President Joe Biden kept working on unresolved parts of the deal, there was deep discontent among Senate Democrats.

"The caucus as a whole is not sold" on the proposal, said a Senate Democratic aide. "We just don't have the votes for it."

December 30, 2012: lots of headlines; I don't see any movement. Did Harry Reid botch it? If so, it really, really fits the script. Reid has nothing to lose even if it costs Obama, but again, Obama benefits if this goes into 2013.

December 26, 2012: no news. 

December 24, 2012: if there is no deal by the end of the year, there really is no reason to pursue a deal until after the State of the Union address in which the president can announce one of the biggest tax cuts in the history of the republic.  The script holds. It will be interesting to see whose "line in the sand" is moved.  By the way, Santelli (CNBC) is not happy that Congress and President all on vacation (and he's not).

December 23, 2012: with the president it seems petty and personal. Does this sound like someone who wants to negotiate seriously?

December 22, 2012, evening: new wrinkle in the script. In the short term, does the possibility of John Boehner losing his gavel become a bigger story line than the ObamaCliff itself? If so, this makes things even more difficult: no leader in the House. Folks will be competing to be "top dog." Legislation becomes a secondary issue for these folks, especially when the House is so divided. With John Boehner's future in doubt, with whom does the president negotiate? Himself?

December 22, 2012, morning: two stories -- a) more pressure on Senate Democrats; b) Majority Whip Eric Cantor AND Paul Ryan are the GOP hurdles. Comment: I have always maintained it will be the Democrats who will the president his biggest challenge; it fits the script. I forgot about Eric Cantor; he may be more important and Paul Ryan. 535 people have their own ideas; the GOP is just the first hurdle; then the Dem hurdle, which I think will be more difficult. Think ObamaCare and the number of folks who went to the mat for the president only to be rewarded with early retirement.

December 21, 2012, 4:03 pm: Obama meets with Reid. Desperate to get anything: a smaller package that would extend the Bush-era tax rates on income below $250,000, pause the across-the-board spending cuts known as the sequester and renew unemployment insurance benefits, according to Senate and administration officials. No spending cuts. Comment: does this fit the script? 100%. Reid is calling the shots: no cuts in benefits, and renew unemployment insurance benefits. This will be updated after the announcement which, if it occurs, will be after the news cycle. If the president  announces this with Reid at his side, it's Boehner's move: a blue slip.

December 21, 2012, morning: John Boehner pulls "Plan B" from House vote; GOP rank and file won't support; chaos. Comment: does this fit the script? Yes: the player, Paul Ryan, would not go along with the talking head. It's still GOP's move.

Later, 4:53 pm CST: Henry Reid has adjourned the Senate until "after Christmas," suggesting he will reconvene the Senate on December 27, 2012. Supposedly the House has the votes to pass "something."

Original Post

The players, the two "R's":

• Paul Ryan: his line in the sand -- taxes
• Harry Reid: his line in the sand -- spending cuts in entitlements, safety net

The talking heads, the two "B's":

• John Boehner: under lots of pressure from Paul Ryan's folks
• Barack Obama: under lots of pressure from his inner circle, and Harry Reid

Comic relief:

• Joe Biden (unfortunately, he's just been tapped to take on the NRA)
• Nancy Pelosi

Stage left (or right), just getting off the stage:

• Tim Geithner

Deus ex machina:

• when Bill Clinton flies into Washington
• if he doesn't fly in to negotiate the grand compromise, the "fat lady" won't sing until after the first of the year

Paraphrasing a news reporter from the past: the chances of getting this deal done before the end of the year is slim to none, and slim is getting ready to leave town. Hawaii is calling. John Boehner already played his "Ohio vacation" card.