Monday, November 12, 2012

From Forbes: Natural Gas Production Not Likely To Decrease Next Four Years

Link here to Forbes.
.... a key element of both the Romney and Obama energy platforms: increased domestic natural gas production.  It is generally expected that the Obama administration will continue to push for more oversight and regulation of shale fracking. 
The April 2012 EPA decision to reduce air emissions from fracking could well be followed by an effort to end exemptions from certain elements of the Safe Drinking Water Act.  In the case of the EPA air emissions oversight, the rules were relaxed somewhat, and industry was given two years to bring activities into compliance.
In the case of water regulation, the conversation may well continue to drag along slowly for some time to come.  In the end, there is only so much regulation that is likely to occur at the national level.  The 2005 Energy Policy Act essentially gave most regulatory responsibility to individual states, and it will probably remain there.
Regardless of the final regulatory outcome, gas production is likely to soar, especially as gas use grows in transportation, industry, and electric generation.  And don’t forget the significant potential for LNG exports, as numerous license requests have already been tendered.  
The Marcellus area, and Pennsylvania in particular, should continue to see rapid growth. 
A new study from ASD Reports announced today suggests that production could increase more than seven-fold from 2011 levels, from  just over 1,000 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe) in 2011 to almost 5,000 bcfe in 2015, before finally leveling off at over 7,600 bcfe in 2020.
I'll be sleeping better tonight. 

3 comments:

  1. Though Forbes wants to paint a picture that gas and oil will continue unhampered by the federal government, I say sure you betcha /sarc.

    As you have pointed out there is too much money being invested in onshore oil and gas development for them not to get involved. Think of the money that could confiscate and redistributed in the name of economic and social justice.

    A different view of will happen to America under O from across the pond.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100188122/under-barack-obama-the-us-superpower-faces-four-more-years-of-decline/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Prior to the election, I talked often about the risk of federal regulation; I was concerned but at the end of the day I thought it was about 50-50 whether the EPA would regulate fracking.

      With reports US could exceed Russia and Saudi production, there is too much money AND too much power associated with the oil and gas industry to let it go without the feds getting involved. I am now 100% convinced that the EPA will post rules on fracking.

      Delete
    2. A reminder: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/6125-proposed-regulations-and-notifications-posted-last-90-days-average-68-day


      68 proposed regulations/notifications being posted every day (on average).

      Delete

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