Friday, December 2, 2016

4Q16 GDP Forecast: 2.9% -- GDP Now -- December 2, 2016

GDP NowLatest 4Q16 forecast: 2.9 percent — December 1, 2016.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on December 1, up from 2.4 percent on November 30.
After this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecasts of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth and real government spending growth increased from 7.1 percent to 12.4 percent and 0.1 to 0.6 percent, respectively.
The forecast of real nonresidential structures investment growth fell from 1.4 percent to -3.4 percent after the same report. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 2.2 percent to 2.5 percent and 4.6 to 6.6 percent, respectively, after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute of Supply Management and the incorporation of earlier released November data in the model's estimate of its dynamic economic activity factor. The factor is used to forecast yet-to-be released monthly source data for GDP.
US Crude Oil Imports From Saudi Arabia Have Hardly Changed

The average amount of US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia in the month of September = 1.269 million bopd. [Ten-year average 2006 - 2015, inclusive.] Source.

September, 2016: 1.209 million bopd.

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