Friday, July 8, 2016

June Jobs Report -- "A Vigorous Rebound" -- The New York Times -- July 8, 2016


July 9, 2106: unemployment for African-American males, 16 - 19 years of age jumped from 28% in May (2016) to June (21016). Some attribute the jump to a burst of $15/hour minimum wage laws going on the books as of July 1, 2016. 

July 9, 2016: to get past the paywall, google "what the seesaw jobs numbers are really telling us nyt." I found the op-ed on the jobs report quite ingenuous.

1. The writer crows about the great jobs report after two months of shocking and stunning numbers; one month (May) was so low as to be laughable. Had this been reversed (two great months followed by a very low number) the analysts would have called it an anomaly, an exception, a one-off, something to ignore since all previous months were doing so well. But not this time: this huge number, the analysts say, tells us the jobs market is great. So, some numbers the writer believes, some numbers the writer does not believe, I guess.

2. The writer says "let's not just look at this one number. Let's average it with the previous two months." What do we get? 149,000. Which he tells us is great. See "magic numbers" below. No, 149,000 is not great.

3. Wow, did anyone catch this? I just saw it. I don't think I'm misreading it. The May number was shockingly/stunningly low. It was originally reported to be 38,000 jobs added. But apparently it was revised and no one has reported it. If I'm reading this correctly, it was revised to an almost unbelievable 11,000 jobs added in May. The writer glosses over this.

4. The writer then tries to tell us that the lousy jobs numbers was "forseeable." With so many jobs having been added during Obama's recovery, the number of jobs added late in the recovery would drop. LOL.

5. Time to stop; it never quits. One more thing. The writer crows about an official unemployment rate lower than 5% but neglecting to tell us that a record number of Americans have dropped out of the labor force.

Original Post
I had to go back and remind myself what the "magic numbers" with regard to jobs were:
The Magic Numbers
First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation) 
New jobs: 200,000 (< 200,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)
Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters
I will stick with 200,000 (the "magic number" prior to the Obama administration) -- it's a nicer, "rounder" number to remember.
I had to remind myself of those numbers and the reports from the past two months because today the "world was watching" to see the US June jobs data. The results are out and The New York Times calls the June data "a vigorous rebound":
The government reported on Friday that employers added 287,000 workers in June, a vigorous rebound that helps sets the stage for the economic themes advanced by the presidential nominees.
That is an impressive number. Jumping from 165,000 in April, and a quite stunning number of only 34,000 in May.

I think I will leave it at that for now. It will be up to analysts later to tell us what they thing of the new number, 287,000 jobs added this past month.

The unemployment rose from 4.7% to 4.9%.

Sad, Sad Day

Following #BlackLivesMatter "protest", two or more snipers shot at least eleven Dallas policemen/women and one DART police officer.

Smith & Wesson Poised To Open At All-Time High

Link here.

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