Friday, September 12, 2014

North Dakota Crude Oil Production Hits New All-Time Record: 1,110,642 BOPD; Permitting Continues To Increase

A 1.7% increase month-over-month (the daily bopd). The monthly increase was 5% but July has one more day than June.

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical errors are likely. This is for my use only. Others should go to the source

Oil:
  • July, 2014: 1,110,642 bopd (preliminary; new all-time high)
  • June, 2014: 1,092,519 bopd (revised; third consecutive month to go over 1 million bopd) 
  • June, 2014: 1,1,092,616 bopd (original)
  • delta: 18,123 (daily bopd)
  • 18,123 / 1,092,519 = 1.659%
Producing wells: 
  • July, 2014: 11,090 (new all-time high)
  • June, 2014: 11,079  
  • May, 2014: 10,902
Permitting:
  • August, 2014: 273
  • July, 2014: 265
  • June, 2014: 247
  • May, 2014: 234
  • All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
Pricing:
  • Today, 2014: $74.50
  • August, 2014: $78.46
  • July, 2014: $86.20
  • June, 2014: $90.03
  • May, 2014: $88.31
  • April, 2014: $85.68
  • March, 2014: $86.72
Rig count:
  • Today: 198 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
  • August, 2014: 193
  • July, 2014:  192
  • June, 2014: 190
  • May, 2014: 189
  • April, 2014: 188
  • March, 2014: 193
Director's comments:
  • drillers continue to outpace the completion crews: number of wells waiting completion (end of July) : 630 (an increase of 45)
  • rig count in the Williston Basin is gradually increasing
  • US natural gas storage:  14% below five-year average
  • percentage of natural gas flared in North Dakota:  26% (Tioga plant below full capacity due to delayed expansion of gas gathering from Lake Sakakawea)
  • number of rigs actively drilling on federal grassland: unchanged at 4 (generally it's been 1 rig)

2 comments:

  1. Seems like a huge change in the June number. Have not seen this discussed.

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    Replies
    1. I'm glad you wrote. I forgot to update some of the earlier data.

      The May data:1,040,469 bopd
      June: 1,092,519
      July: 1,110,642

      So, yes, the jump in May to June was quite impressive. This is most likely due to road restrictions being lifted. The June to July jump would have been higher (NDIC expected a higher number) but operators were focused on meeting the new flaring guidelines.

      I haven't run the numbers, but based on the price folks are getting for their natural gas, some mineral owners are going to start seeing a cut in royalties as some operators have to cut back on some oil production. I believe wells have to be choked back below 6,000 bbls/month if they don't want to be affected by the flaring rules. I could be wrong on that; I know that was accurate at a specific moment in time; I do not know if it changes over time. But I do know that some operators are going to have to cut back on production if they can't get their natural gas into a pipeline. Or pay a fine.

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