When you finish reading the notes below, you might be interested in a very good discussion going on over at the Bakken Shale Discussion Group regarding almost the very same question, but limiting the discussion to "currently recoverable Bakken/TFS oil. [By the way, I still prefer referring to the Three Forks as the TFS rather than TF, but, I do believe that Three Forks is becoming the accepted name.]
Eric Fox summarizes the current estimates of recoverable Bakken oil:
- CLR's CEO Harold Hamm: 20 billion barrels (in fact, he has said as high as 24 billion barrels); he includes both the Bakken and TFS in his estimates, as two separate non-communicating formations
- US Geological Survey: 3.65 billion bbls of oil; plus 1.85 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 148 million bbls of natural gas liquids (2008 Survey); their 1995 report said the Bakken had only 151 million barrels
- North Dakota's assessment: 149 billion bbls of oil in place, of which 2.1 billion is recoverable (2008); two years later, ND assessed the TFS at 20 billion barrels in place, of which 1.9 billion is recoverable
- Dr Leigh Price: Saudi Arabian estimates; estimated the Bakken could generate between 271 billion and 503 billion bbls of oil with an average of 413 billion bbls; Price said his numbers are higher because he felt the Bakken oil was trapped in that formation and had not migrated to the Mission Canyon or Madison formation; Leigh put a recoverable estimate at 50 percent, suggesting that approximately 200 billion barrels of oil could be recovered
- CLR: nearly 900,000
- Whiting: 579,000
- Oasis: 300,000
- BEXP: 368,000
- KOG: 72,000
- Hess: 500,000
- GeoResources: 46,000
- Marathon: 385,000
- Occidental: 200,000
- SM Energy: 81,000
I'm hoping CLR hits an even million acres just for the bragging rights. [CLR has close to 900,000 net acres in the Bakken and the Three Forks. Note: earlier I have posted about the risk of double-counting acres in the Williston Basin. To the best of my knowledge, oil companies are not doing that but watch out for it in presentations.]
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