Some data points from the opening salvo:
- 6,000 drilling / spacing units within the "mature area" of the Bakken pool in North Dakota (I don't know if this includes the TF pinch out in the southwest, which will be important)
- Spacing units will be 640-, 1280-, and 2560-acre units; most will be 1280-acre spacing units
- So far, about 50% of these spacing units have at least one well; and, thus held by production
- The author thinks that all spacing units will be held by production by the end of 2012 (I could be wrong, but there seems to be a lot of state land yet to be leased; I'm probably wrong)
- In general, operators talk of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of 350,000 bbls; I think it's higher
- Author agrees that re-fracking, more stimulation is the wild card. I agree.
- 6,000 wells x 350,000 bbls = 2.1 billion bbls; two wells (one Bakken; one TFS) is 4.2 billion bbls, which he says is close to the USGS 2008 estimate
- At seven bbls per spacing unit: 15 billion barrels (same ballpark as Harold Hamm's 20 billion estimate; author notes that Harold Hamm includes Montana's ND Bakken in his estimate
- How many wells are we talking about?
- If four wells on average/unit, then nearly 25,000 wells targeting the Bakken/TFS. It could be higher. Regardless, the author says there are currently about 3,500 Bakken/TFS wells drilled.
- 25,000 wells at 40 bbls/day = 1,000,000 bbls per day. And that's at 40 bbls/day.
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