Iran's Worst Nightmare -- October 17, 2023

Locator: 45801MIDEAST. 

Updates

Later, 5:12 p.m. CT:children's hospital in Gaza Strip destroyed; the media is "rounding" up the usual suspects; 500 killed; Abbas, Palestinian leader cancels meeting with Biden; following script.

Original Post 

The former and the current president had / have something in common. They both wanted to disengage in the Middle East. 

Exhibit A: Afghanistan hasty withdrawal by Biden; plans put in place by his predecessor.

Iran's goal: become dominant player in the gulf. 

Hamas?

Screwed up everything for Iran. 

The US Navy can't get back to the gulf fast enough. 

Iran has to be really, really pissed.

One US a/c group already there;

The US second a/c group en route. [By the way, the Israeli's delay will allow the IKE to get there in time to see the fireworks. It amazes me that folks are asking why the IDF is waiting to go into northern Gaza. It also goes without saying that this provides more time to get refugees out of harm's way. And, oh by the way, a a lot of medical capability in an a/c group. Lots of blood for transfusions on those aircraft carriers.]

And, the cherry on top of that sundae: the US Marines will move north through the Strait before Iran can close it to shut down the trade of oil.

The US won't get any ground sites for land-based fighters this go-around -- except possibly Kuwait. Turkey has aligned itself with the Palestinians, against Israel, and Saudi Arabia and Iran are now talking. A new world order.

US Navy / US Marines have the edge over the USAF if this war goes regional.

This is what Iran sees, link here: 

The US Marines are there for two reasons:

• provide air support to Israel if ground invasion into Gaza begins to go sideways;
• prevent the invasion from going regional --

Regional? Euphemism for Hezbollah.

• Euphemism for Hezbollah? Say what? Quick! What other "entity" is going to attack Israel?
• Turkey? Saudi? Egypt? LOL.
• Iran? Hardly -- and at very, very great risk. Israelis would love opportunity to take out nuclear sites.
• Hamas. They're done.*
• Hezbollah. That's it. That's the only regional player that could get involved.
• Hezbollah: a political entity, not a military entity, though it does have a limited military capacity;
• so, for diplomats: "regional" = Hezbollah.
  

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Hamas

*They're done.

Biden's trip will allow the Israelis an additional six days to prepare. And when they go, it will look chaotic but Israel will have everything in order given this much time to prepare -- and oh, by the way, water, electricity, and diesel fuel no longer getting to Hamas. They have a lot of diesel stored in anticipation of such a siege but I don't think they expected to be burning emergency diesel "waiting" for Israel to respond.

Israel won't move until Biden is back in Washington.

By the way, has Biden crossed the Rubicon with regard to unlimited military support for Israel is so needed. The tea leaves certainly suggest that.

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Capabilities

Someone over on social media questioned "fighters on amphibious / landing craft"?

Yup.

Harriers and F-35B Lightnings. From wiki, multiple sites.