For Newbies: The Predictability Of The Bakken; The Incredible Success Rate -- September 12, 2018

I'm running through the 18XXX wells tonight, and I come across this one.

Wow, spud in 2010, and has production numbers like this.

Obviously a re-frack.

So, I look at the operator and the field. Absolutely predictable.

MRO re-fracking wells in the Bailey oil field.

Absolutely predictable.

Checking FracFocus. Yes, re-fracked 8/11/17 - 8/25/17.

I wonder, what kind of frack? A small to moderate one: 5.9 million gallons of water; 89% water by weight; 10% sand by weight. So, MRO gets another nice well with a small-to-moderate re-frack.

And something else.

They "never" screw up.

I almost never see a well that is not successfully re-fracked.

These guys are good. Not just MRO but all the operators in the Bakken.

Two miles down; two miles horizontal; hit a seam forty feet thick; know within inches where the well bore is; and successfully complete a well 99.999% of the time, it seems.

What's the production look like from the re-frack? Absolutely incredible:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	13889	13763	15464	10750	8938	740
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	14242	14335	15279	10417	9285	50
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	16838	16832	9470	10652	7558	1839
BAKKEN	4-2018	24	15235	15196	13210	10041	2693	5591
BAKKEN	3-2018	25	15477	15521	18044	10768	8433	538
BAKKEN	2-2018	26	17356	17282	18611	11692	6384	3322
BAKKEN	1-2018	29	23820	23889	30412	17041	13573	759
BAKKEN	12-2017	22	20852	20816	24612	14321	8282	3699
BAKKEN	11-2017	25	16547	16593	18778	11933	8981	1047
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	28177	28108	34755	19296	13632	2465
BAKKEN	9-2017	16	16166	16203	142	11650	1128	8706
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

How does that compare to the original frack back in 2010?

BAKKEN	6-2011	30	3597	3755	1067	1843	1634	30
BAKKEN	5-2011	31	3355	3470	927	1642	1334	122
BAKKEN	4-2011	30	4730	4722	1432	1681	1359	142
BAKKEN	3-2011	29	3956	3720	1492	300	92	45
BAKKEN	2-2011	28	771	697	92	630	0	462
BAKKEN	1-2011	31	1707	1835	362	192	6	0
BAKKEN	12-2010	26	1445	1384	283	175	28	0
BAKKEN	11-2010	30	2042	2124	362	186	6	0
BAKKEN	10-2010	4	440	235	7	101	79	0
BAKKEN	9-2010	1	184	474	10	6	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2010	20	2589	2136	710	502	382	0

And, then this: there are literally tens of thousands of wells that were drilled between 2007 and 2012 that need to be re-fracked.

When folks talk about drilling the Bakken for the next 30 years, they are talking about new wells. The re-working, re-fracks, etc., will carry them another generation (or two).

By the way, MRO re-fracked the other well, a Repp well, #16753, in this same drilling unit; same success. Only two wells in this drilling unit but producing like it has four.