Friday, June 22, 2018

Just Released -- USGS Survey Of The Eagle Ford -- June 22, 2018

For release, June 22, 2018 -- USGS estimates 8.5 billion bbls of oil in Texas' Eagle Ford Group. “This assessment is a bit different than previous ones, because it ranks in the top five of assessments we’ve done of continuous resources for both oil and gas,” said USGS scientist Kate Whidden, lead author for the assessment. “Usually, formations produce primarily oil or gas, but the Eagle Ford is rich in both.” Some data points:
  • map at the link: a very, very thin footprint in southern Texas, stretching from the western border with Mexico to Louisiana
  • estimate of undiscovered, technically recoverable resources in continuous accumulations
  • one of the most prolific continuous accumulations in the United States, and is comprised of mudstone with varying amounts of carbonate
  • continuous oil and gas is dispersed throughout a geologic formation rather than existing as discrete, localized occurrences, such as those in conventional accumulations. Because of that, continuous resources commonly require special technical drilling and recovery methods, such as hydraulic fracturing
  • the USGS is the only provider of publicly available estimates of undiscovered technically recoverable oil and gas resources of onshore lands and offshore state waters. The USGS assessment of the Eagle Ford Group was undertaken as part of a nationwide project assessing domestic petroleum basins using standardized methodology and protocol
  • the new assessment of the Eagle Ford Formation may be found online
Many analysts combine crude oil and natural gas liquids when they talk about "oil and gas production." Often the EIA does: in this case, crude oil and NGLs = 10.4 billion bbls.

66,000,000,000,000 / 6,001 = 10,998,166,972 boe.

If I've done the arithmetic correctly -- disclaimer -- I often make simple arithmetic errors -- the Eagle Ford is about 50/50 crude oil-NGLs / natural gas.

With regard to natural gas, this link (also above). The numbers below come form multiple sources; many data points are old; and many will opine that the Marcellus and Utica are much bigger than currently assessed:
  • Russia: 6,000 trillion cubic feet
  • Iran: 1,000 trillion cubic feet
  • Qatar: 900 trillion cubic feet
  • Turkmenistan: 600 trillion cubic feet
  • US: 350 trillion cubic feet
  • #11: Australia: 152 trillion cubic feet (as of January, 2014). (See this post.)
Now, let's go back and re-run the numbers that were posted earlier:
  • October 18, 2017: USGS survey -- 300 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, up from roughly 70 trillion cubic feet in its last survey in 2010.
  • Bakken/Three Forks, USGS estimate: 7 trillion cubic feet
  • Qatar: 800 trillion cubic feet, wiki, conversion

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