Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Enhanced Completions In The Bakken Could Cap Upside -- Filloon -- September 26, 2017

Over at SeekingAlpha, summary:
  • Bakken core wells show a lower level of oil production than other plays, but decreased well costs provide economic benefits
  • lateral lengths in North Dakota mostly range between 8,000 and 12,000 feet
  • current enhanced well results support production at $50/bbl (after differentials) but it is likely higher prices will be needed to support growth
  • enhanced well results have improved economics significantly, and are the reason there is much dissension in current break evens
Key point:
Enhanced completions are in the early stages of development. Since results continue to improve, there is not reason to believe this will not continue in the immediate future. This continues to pressure oil prices and the U.S. Oil ETF. It is obvious that operators can produce a profit at much lower oil price than just two years ago. If improvements continue, we could see lower for longer with respect to WTI.
Other data points:
  • at 250K over 19 months, a marked improvement over last year
  • plug and perf with cemented lines with tighter-space perf clusters
  • well design is outpacing lower quality geology
  • well design is driving US production growth; EOG is acting as the flagship
The graphic: the arrows point to the wells that interest me --


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