Wednesday, May 17, 2017

The Market And Energy Page, T+117 -- May 17, 2017

Weekly petroleum data:
  • crude oil inventories: dropped 1.8 million bbls vs 2.2 million forecast (at this rate, it will only take 95 weeks to get US crude oil inventory to historical levels of 350 million bbls)
  • crude oil inventories: upper half of the "average" (wink, wink) range for this time of year
  • separate data from API suggested there was actually a gain of 882,000 bbls
  • refinery utilization at 93.4% 
  • all in all, not a bullish report; following the report, where is WTI?  $49.01, up a bit for the day
  • gasoline demand up slightly but well below what it was last year at this time
Days of crude oil supply in the US:

As recently as January, 2015, there were 22 days of crude oil supply in the US and the US has gotten along fine with as few as 17 days of crude oil supply. Last week crude oil supply, measured in days, hit an all-time (?) record, of 34 days. It's now back to around 31 days but much longer than the historical "average" of around days, and double what we really need.

Futures: have come off their lows since early last night. Now down about 73 points.

Reminder: today we get the "drawdown" numbers. EIA/Platts released a forecast yesterday. EIA forecasts a crude inventory drawdown of 2.2 million bbls -- Platts. At that rate, 2.2 million bbls/week, it will take 77 weeks for US crude oil inventory to get back to historical average: 350 million bbls in storage.

Gasoline demand: numbers starting to line up. DOT is reporting that "vehicle miles traveled" (VMT) was up only 0.5% in March, 2017, year-over-year.

Volatility: TGT -- was down to $54.53 yesterday. In pre-market trading, TGT is up almost 8%, up about $4.27.

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