It's pretty clear, based on:
- new permits
- number of active rigs
- production profiles
- number of wells coming off confidential list
- number of wells on fracklog
Key dates:
- October 1, 2014: Saudi slide starts
- June 20, 2015: new Bakken production shuts down
For example, one might see a small uptick in the number of rigs by the end of November, 2015, but then be frustrated to see that rig count drop again in the winter. Likewise, we may start to see an increase in fracking later this summer and into December, but after that, all bets are off.
With regard to key dates above, production was tapering off between October, 2014, and June 20, 2015, but "new Bakken production shuts down" is finally here. By "new Bakken production shuts down," I mean that operators are producing only what they absolutely need to produce to survive. They may not even be producing all the oil they need to produce to meet refinery contracts; they could be buying cheaper oil on the "spot" market. There are obviously contracts with regard to transportation (pipeline or CBR) but the former (pipeline) is less flexible, and the latter (CBR) is more flexible.
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