Friday, February 14, 2014

Director's Cut For December 2013 Data Is Posted: No New Record; New Fracking Rule On Use Of Diesel Is Moot -- No One Uses Diesel For Fracking In North Dakota Any More

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical errors are likely. This is for my use only. Others should go to the source

December, 2013: 923,227 bopd (misses a new record)
November, 20l3: 976,453 bopd (up 3% from previous month; remains the all-time high)

Producing wells:
December, 2013: 10,015
November, 2013: 10,042 (all-time high)

December, 2013: 227
November, 2013: 232
October, 2013: 267
All time high was 370 in 10/2012

Today, 2014: $81.35  (923,227 x 81.35 = $75.105 million/day)
January, 2014: $74.20
December, 2013: $73.47 (976453 x 73.47 = $71.740 million/day)
November, 2013: $71.42
October, 2013: $85.16

Rig count:
Today: 185
January, 2013: 188
December, 2013: 190
November, 2013: 184
October, 2013: 183

Director's comments:
The drilling rig count was up from Nov to Dec, but the number of well completions dropped from 138 to 119. Days from spud to initial production increased 18 days to 132....the big story is the December weather. Low temperatures of 21 to 31 degrees below zero, 4 major snow events, and 5 major wind events. Dickinson had the 4th coldest December on record and from Williston to Bismarck it was the 9th snowiest December since 1890.

I haven't tracked this in a long time, but this seems to be rather high: utilization for shallow wells rigs (drill to 7,000 feet or less) was about 60% in December. The utilization rate for rigs capable of +20,000 feet remains above 90%.

The number of rigs actively drilling on federal surface in the Dakota Prairie Grasslands is 3, up 1 from 2 in January.

wow, grist for the mill: the percentage of gas flared is up a whopping 6% to 36% largely due to the temporary shut-down of the Tioga gas plant on November 25th for expansion. [I though the plant was back on line now.]

This was interesting:
Final EPA Guidance for permitting hydraulic fracturing using diesel fuel was published 2/13/14. [Some days later, The Bismarck Tribune wrote an article on this.]
The nearly 2 years of comment and analysis resulted in some very real improvements, but more significantly allowed industry time to develop new recipes that do not use diesel fuel.
We are disappointed that EPA did not provide for the ability to use a de minimis amount of diesel such as less than 1%. However they reduced the impact a great deal by removing petroleum distillate, synonyms, and “substantially similar compounds."
The revised guidance should not result in any type of moratorium on hydraulic fracturing in North Dakota.
We have reviewed the FracFocus data for all North Dakota wells since 4/1/12 and found 15 instances of kerosene, one of the five chemicals defined as diesel fuel, being used at concentrations of less than 4 ten-thousands of one percent. The operator has been contacted, the reason identified, and the operator has already eliminated that product from its treatments.
We were given less than 24 hours advanced notice of publication in the Federal Register and are working really hard to let everyone know what chemicals will result in a underground injection control permit being required and what the permitting requirements are.
I am truly impressed how quickly the NDIC can seemingly turn on a dime. It took the Feds two years to publish the rules; NDIC, 48 hours to read, translate, re-read, publish, contact, and whatever else had to be done.

I track projected estimates of future oil production at this site

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