Notes From All Over -- February 1, 2022

North Dakota Senator Hoeven: has tested positive for Covid. 

Fertilizer: it's not yet being reported on mainstream media -- Shepard Smith won't report it tonight -- but Putin says Russia won't export any fertilizer for next two months.  

Russia accounts for 60% to 70% of the entire world's fertilizer production. And Russia won't export any for two months. 

Some folks think this is a economic ploy on Putin's part -- to counter any sanctions the rest of the world is thinking of placing on Russia if it invades Ukraine. Others think it suggests Russia is "short" natural gas. No, not at all. Two things: natural gas is a feedstock for fertilizer; and "fertilizer" feedstock will be needed for explosives that might be needed during the next two months. Really? Now why would Russia need such explosives? Asking for a friend. The White House is monitoring.

Denver: will end all Covid mandates. Except for public schools, public transportation, and the airport. Follow the science: apparently the virus is different in those places.

Jim Cramer:

• footrace between inflation and deflation
• inflation still winning
• semi-conductor chips coming down in price; supply shortage improving
• West Coast ports as crowded as ever; perhaps worse
  

Investing? Tech is back. Wow, that was fast. 

10:1 rule held. Dow up almost 300 points; S&P 500 up 30 points.

Dinner hour in New England. Holy mackerel. I don't think I've ever seen this. Cost for electricity over $400 in Maine, $400 in Boston. Link here. Demand is not even that great, less than 18,000 MW. So, what's the deal? Let's check the fuel mix:

• renewables: 6% (incredibly low -- that's the problem); and, wind: 32% of that 6%:
• oil at only 6%;
• hydro, only 9%
• here's the problem: natural gas at 55% and 8,000 MW -- and natural gas is surging in price on average, and worse, NE is competing for natural gas headed for Europe
• but $405 / MW in Maine; that's crazy; $400 in Boston;
  
• cut-rate utilities with contracts signed a year ago are in deep doo-doo

More later, going biking.