Wednesday, The Day After -- November 5, 2014

Active rigs:

	11/5/2014	11/05/2013	11/05/2012	11/05/2011	11/05/2010
Active Rigs	190	183	189	196	155

RBN Energy: the future of methanol.

There’s good reason to be bullish about a skyrocketing trajectory for US methanol production.

Natural gas prices are relatively low and likely to stay so; domestic demand for methanol continues to increase; and overseas demand—especially in China—is rising even faster.

More than a dozen methanol mega-projects are in various stages of planning, design and construction, most of them along the Gulf Coast. If they were all built (they probably won’t be), US methanol production capacity would increase more than 10-fold to nearly 30 million metric tons per year, and turn the US from a methanol importer to an exporter within two or three years. Today, we look into why methanol demand is rising, what new capacity is under development in the US, and what it all means for natural gas producers.

Methanol, which can be produced from natural gas, coal or other hydrocarbons, has two primary uses. About two-thirds of worldwide demand (which now totals about 60 million metric tons per year, or 60 MTPA) is tied to methanol’s traditional use a basic chemical feedstock for making formaldehyde, acetic acid and petrochemical intermediates that, in turn, are used to make plastics, synthetic fibers, paints, resins and solvents, among many other things. 

The balance of methanol produced annually is used either in “methanol-to-olefins” (MTO) plants (most of them in China) that directly convert methanol into ethylene or polyethylene; as a fuel (again, mostly in China); or as a fuel additive. For example, methanol can be blended into gasoline; it can be used to produce dimethyl ether (DME), an alternative motor fuel and sometimes replacement for propane; and it can be used to produce methyl-tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), an octane booster the US has banned for domestic use but still produces for export.

Methanol’s fast-growing use in MTO and as a fuel is what’s driving worldwide demand, which by the early 2020s may top 100 MTPA—a full 40 MTPA higher than current demand.

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Sobering, Very Sobering
A Lot Of Congressional Staffers Will Be Looking For New Jobs
Some After Decades In DC

David Gergen on the Democrat debacle orchestrated by President Obama:

It should be sobering for the White House that when Obama took office, Democrats had 59 senators and 256 House members; after Tuesday night, they will likely have 45-47 senators and some 190 House members. That is one of the biggest slides in congressional seats of any modern president. Surely, his White House has to take serious responsibility -- and look for ways to leave a better legacy.

This was an unexpectedly big night for the GOP: Predictions for Republicans were already high, but they blew the doors off. Who could have imagined Republicans winning the governorships of Maryland and Massachusetts, winning Senate seats in Obama states such as Colorado and Iowa, and assembling their biggest coalition in the House of Representatives since the 1940s.

A Republican governor in Massachusetts? A Republican governor in Maryland? Maryland -- that was about the only state Mr Obama openly campaigned in. He was in California too many times to count, but not to campaign. He was there to golf, fundraising, and look for a site for his library.  Gergen could have added (and maybe he did) that every -- every -- Congressional seat in Arkansas -- Arkansas -- is now owned by a Republican; first time in 141 years. About as long as we've seen no evidence of global warning.

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Deal With It

Most Refreshing Story From Yesterday's Mid-Term Elections?

This may be one of the best stories to have come out of yesterday's mid-term elections. Breitbart is reporting:

Congressman elect Mia Love celebrated her surprise victory in Utah as the first black Republican woman to be elected to the House of Representatives.

But during an interview with CNN this morning, Love was quick to explain that she was not elected because of her race or gender.

“I wasn't elected because of the color of my skin. I wasn't elected because of my gender,” she said during the interview. “I was elected because of the solutions that I put at the table because I promised I would run a positive issues-oriented campaign and that's what resonated.”

According to the Associated Press, Love earned 50 percent of the vote against her Democratic opponent Doug Owens who earned nearly 47 percent. Love said it was clear that Utah citizens were “not interested in dividing Americans based on race or gender,” but electing people who had integrity.

It would interesting as all get-out how this happened.

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The Spin Continues

I love the spin. MyWay is reporting:

Faced with the imperative of constructing a new working relationship, one of Obama's first post-election calls was to McConnell, although the two didn't connect. Obama left a message for the senator. 

"The two didn't disconnect." Say what? Mr McConnell didn't take the president's call. No doubt he was too busy taking congratulatory phone calls.