Global Oil Discoveries Drop To 70-Year-Low -- Rystad Energy; Helps Explain Why XOM Double-Downed In The Permian; IEA Forgot To Factor In DUCs; Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- January 19, 2017

That was the headline story: global oil and gas discoveries drop to 70-year low.

But the devil is in the details. Here's the fine print:

The numbers do not include North American shale resources which have been a key driver in supply growth in recent years.

An oil company's value is based on a couple of things, including reserves.

Oil and gas discoveries around the world dropped last year to their lowest since the 1940s after companies sharply cut back in their search for new resources amid falling oil prices.

The decline in discoveries means companies such as ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell will struggle to offset the natural depletion of existing fields, reinforcing forecasts of a supply shortage by the end of the decade.

Total oil and gas resources found in 2016 reached just more than 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe).

As a result, companies were able on average to replace only 10 percent of their oil and liquid gas reserves last year, compared with a reserve replacement ratio of 30 percent in 2013.

This may be one of the bigger reasons why ExxonMobil doubled down in the Permian.

Speaking of US shale, the IEA sees significant gains in US shale oil as prices rise. From Bloomberg:

Oil-price gains will trigger a “significant” increase in U.S. shale output as OPEC and other producers rein in supply, according to the head of the International Energy Agency.

“U.S. shale-oil production will definitely react strongly,” .... At $56 to $57 a barrel, “a lot of shale plays in the United States would make perfect sense to produce.”

.... comments suggest that the IEA has become more optimistic about the outlook for U.S. production. [Just two or three days ago, it was "game on."]

Last month, the Paris-based agency said it expected U.S. tight oil -- as shale is also known -- to rise only “marginally” in 2017.

Oil prices have risen about 20 percent since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a deal to curtail supply last year.

The oil industry is becoming more cost-efficient and a “big chunk” of global output is now profitable at $50 to $55 a barrel, ....  Brazil, Mexico and China as countries that will also boost production. There will be “lots more” supply in late 2017 or early 2018....

“This will make it more difficult for OPEC to achieve its goal of restoring the balance on the oil market by means of production cuts,” said analysts at Commerzbank AG led by Eugen Weinberg in Frankfurt.

Much more at the link.

Peak oil? What peak oil?