Gartman, Uber, Public Transportation (Again) -- February 26, 2018

I was fascinated by Dennis Gartman suggesting the Uber was Big Oil's biggest threat. That did not make any sense to me.

I've posted several times regarding Gartman and Uber:

• re-posting; Uber is top threat to oil; January 18, 2017
• Uber overtakes rental cars among business travelers, April 21, 2016 (eschewing public transportation, apparently, LOL)
• Gartman, Uber, and record gasoline sales in the US, March 30, 2016
• a fairly long post with updates, March 29, 2016 -- that's how long ago this observation first surfaced
• when Gartman also predicted that oil was not going above $55 for years, December 26, 2016 (he changed his mind just three months later, March 9, 2017)

Common sense would tell you that as it becomes easier and less expensive for millennials to take Uber or Lyft rather than public transportation, the millennials will ditch public transportation for automobiles, electric or otherwise.

Now this story from Boston.com: studies are increasingly clear: Uber and Lyft congest cities.  "Ride sharing" is pulling from and not complementing public transportation:

One promise of ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft was fewer cars clogging city streets. But studies suggest the opposite: that ride-hailing companies are pulling riders off buses, subways, bicycles and their own feet and putting them in cars instead.

And in what could be a new wrinkle, a service by Uber called Express Pool now is seen as directly competing with mass transit.

One study included surveys of 944 ride-hailing users over four weeks in late 2017 in the Boston area. Nearly six in 10 said they would have used public transportation, walked, biked or skipped the trip if the ride-hailing apps weren’t available.

The report also found many riders aren’t using hailed rides to connect to a subway or bus line, but instead as a separate mode of transit, said Alison Felix, one of the report’s authors.

And more. This is incredibly important on so many levels, think about it:

And a survey released in October of more than 4,000 adults in Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle and Washington, D.C., also concluded that 49 to 61 percent of ride-hailing trips would have not been made at all — or instead by walking, biking or public transit — if the option didn’t exist.

The Boston study found that the main reason people opted for ride-hailing was speed. Even those with a public transit pass would drop it for ride-hailing despite the higher cost. 

In other words, because of Uber, folks who would otherwise stay home, order on-line, are now getting out and about. And when they get out and about to go shopping, they also take time to have lunch or dinner. And they might take in a movie before taking Uber back home.

Perhaps this example says it all. Even is Sarah had best intentions to be taken to the nearest subway, once she got into the Uber car, she took the car to her "real" destination:

Sarah Wu, a graduate student at Boston University, uses Uber less than once a week but more often if she has guests. She lives near a subway line but will opt for Uber if it looks like public transit will be a hassle.

“I would prefer to have the Uber take me there directly rather than having to transfer several times and wait at a bus stop,” said Wu, who doesn’t own a car.

And Uber is simply so much more efficient: no switching subways; no waiting for buses (in the rain); no walking to and from the subway/bus station; no hassle with parking; even better than valet parking.