Trump Claims Victory As Oil Prices Plummet -- November 18, 2018

Classic bait and switch. On November 14, 2018, from the blog:

WTI?  It was classic bait and switch.

1. Iran sanctions announced six months before they were to go into effect.

2, Iran produces at max level to sell as much as they can before sanctions go into effect.

3. Likewise, Russia and Saudi max out production -- were ready to make up for Iranian shortfall.

4. So, now we had more oil on the market than ever before.

4a. China buying as much oil as fast as they; as much storage as they have.

4a. Canada hit really, really hard.

5. Sanctions go into effect.

6. Once any country has a piece of paper that has "waiver" on it, it opens the door wide open. No one can keep track of how much oil is coming in; exceeding Iran sanctions or not.

7. Bottom line: no Iranian sanctions on oil.

7a. Classic bait and switch.

7b. Trump is smart enough to know exactly what was going to happen.

7c. Obama had his war on coal; I'm convinced that Trump has his war on oil -- in the sense that he wants to drive prices down to lowest in many, many years. That will be a great headline going into 2020.

7d. Low, low oil prices, by the way, kill the renewable industry.

8. Mideast Arabs are the greatest traders in the world -- I learned that when stationed in Turkey. They played this very, very well.

9. It will take at least six months to turn this around and only if Saudi and Russia cut significantly. Russia won't cut. Saudi might cut. Saudi is in deep doo-doo.

Today, the headline: Trump claims victory as oil prices plummet.

Trump?

Obama?

I saw the headline; did not read the article. 

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Peak Oil? Probably Not

Alaska.

Headline: Alaska sees record breaking year for oil and gas leases. 

Data points:

• Alaska has three sectors: North Slope, Beaufort Sea, North Slope Foothills
• North Slope
• third largest year for leases, ranked by bonus bid amount, since 1998
• 1998: $110/acre
• 2018: shattered that amount -- $121/acre
• edged out the 2017 sale to rank third largest by dollar amount;
• at $27 million, $7 million more than last year
• Beaufort Sea
• 20,270 acres
• $848,197
• $42/acre
• North Slope Foothills
• no bids

$42/acre? Less than a million dollars? Operators should be so lucky in the Permian.