RBN Energy: US natural gas storage injection and inventory scenarios for 2017.
Considering that most of our scenarios lead to relatively bullish outcomes compared to last year, it’s no wonder that the bulls have been “hangin’ on” to $3.00/MMBtu pricing in the futures curve, even as weather has remained mild. That said, there are still several curve balls that could knock the market off its current, generally bullish course. For instance, on the bearish side, production could roar back faster than expected in the second half of the year. On the bullish side, exports or U.S. consumption also could ramp up more than we assumed. But what we do know from the scenarios is that the year-on-year deficit in storage currently and the underlying supply/demand balance give the bulls a bit of an edge going into this injection season.Scott Adams: the Syrian gas attack persuasion.