Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; WTI Trending Toward $67; Active Rig Count Stays Steay At 19 -- May 18, 2021

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Data I'm most interested in today: CDC Covid-19 vaccine data.

Biggest story yesterday: Biden's cash-to-kids program, monthly check starting July 15, 2021, through the end of the year:

• six years of age and under: $300 / month
• over six years of age: $250 / month
• does anyone really think the politicians will end this program, January, 2022? Every US rep up for re-election in the mid-term elections (2022).
  

Story of the day: Walmart

• blow-out earnings
• guidance raised;
• shares in pre-market trading: WMT up almost $5/share; up almost 4%;

The market:

• CVX: why is it down? Warren Buffett just sold half of his holdings; not a "sell" and could soon be a "buy." It really is amazing how much Buffett can affect an individual stock.
  
• Brent: breaks $70; this is a big deal. Chart of the day.
  
• WTI: trending toward $67.
• oil will face a supply crisis before demand peaks: opinion -- oilprice.
  
• dollar: breaks below 90 -- probably the major reason why oil is where it is
• copper: are folks paying attention? Link to Irina Slav;
  
• one monster offshore wind turbine needs 63,000 lbs of copper

ATT:

• it will come out of this just fine; on this one I think pundits are absolutely wrong; this will be interesting to follow; of course the dividend will be "re-sized"; why wouldn't it be after a deal this big? Could be a great trading stock; possibly a great long-term stock. It will be interesting to see SeekingAlpha articles on same. Jim Cramer rant here.
• Ian Bezek; Harold L. Vogel; Gary Gambino;
  

They're reading the blog:

• posted the other day: 
• that's the problem with Apple TV. It has no content. I subscribe to Apple TV (still for free. Well, almost free: one cent per month). Apple needs to do something and needs to do something this year if it wants to "save" Apple TV. Every month it waits, the gap between Apple and Amazon, and the gap between Apple and Netflix widens. At some point the moat may be too big for Apple to bridge. Especially if Amazon acquires the MGM catalogue.
• today's news: Amazon looking to buy MGM catalogue;

EVs: "While you were distracted by Elon vs Bitcoin the last few days, Nikola quietly manufactured another 0 vehicles." -- Chadford Whitmore VI. Link here.

Other:

• Amazon looking to buy MGM; would the regulators allow this? If Hunter Biden is on the board, it will be a slam dunk.
  
• Apple unboxing: over at Macrumors.
  
• online video downloader so good it's banned in the US; savefrom.net letter here;
  

LNG:

• US exports won't be able to keep up with Asian demand;
• chokepoint: Panama Canal

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$66.58	5/18/2021	05/18/2020	05/18/2019	05/18/2018	05/18/2017
Active Rigs	19	14	66	61	52

Three wells coming off the confidential list -- Tuesday, May 18, 2021:

• 37541, drl/NC, BR, Don Juan 3C-UTFH, ULW,  Dimmick Lake, first production, t--; cum --;
• 36993, 3,442, MRO, Leiderbach 11-27H, Chimney Butte, t11/20; cum 153K 3/21; see this note;
  
• 36126, drl/NC, Slawson, Stalion 4-1-12TFH, Big Bend, first production, t--; cum --;

RBN Energy: the impact of decarbonization efforts on the LNG industry. 

On the surface, it may seem that the LNG market has normalized after the past year’s tumult, and it’s true that many of the day-to-day disruptions that plagued LNG offtakers and operators have subsided. Mass cargo cancellations are a distant memory, and U.S. LNG exports have been flowing at record levels. Global demand has recovered, and buyers are back to worrying more about what they normally worry about: storage refill and securing enough supply for the next winter. However, in other ways, the pandemic and the more decisive shift toward decarbonization measures in many ways have fundamentally changed how deals for future LNG development will get done. Today, we look at what the global initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will mean for LNG project financing.

The LNG industry has been impacted by three major events in the last 18 months, all of which have implications for the future of the industry in the short-, medium-, and long-term. Firstly, the initial wave of U.S. LNG projects, centered on the U.S. Gulf Coast, has now reached full production capacity, running at rates equivalent to about 10.5 Bcf/d (80 Mtpa), or approximately 20% of global LNG demand in 2020, with the first of the early second-wave projects due to begin exporting later this year. The second major event was brought on by the pandemic and the resulting demand destruction. U.S. LNG suffered from cargo cancellations as a result of COVID-19, which limited exports from the Lower 48 last year to an annual average of 6.5 Bcf/d (49 Mtpa). So far in 2021, there is no sign that there will be a repeat of last year’s cargo cancellations as LNG prices in global markets have been robust, notwithstanding the boost in supply. However, 2020’s global LNG market was essentially unchanged from 2019, growing by less than 1%, versus original market expectations of 4-5%. As such, the demand curve for LNG has shifted to the right by at least one and, more likely, two years, before the anticipated growth trajectory resumes. During this period, sponsors of renewable energy projects havemaintained much of their momentum, and that growth in renewable energy will serve to reduce the plateau or peak demand for LNG as the world pursues decarbonization strategies — which is the third factor that will impact LNG, and the focus of our discussion today. In particular, the current market environment and push for decarbonization are upending traditional approaches to funding and capacity commitments for new developments.