The tipping point, apparently, regarding the current Turkish-American spat has to do with the continued imprisonment of an American pastor. [I'm sure there's a lot more to this story.]
The headlines below are very, very troublesome. I would not put it past the Turks to come just short of physically rounding up American military officers and putting them in prison, but Turkey could certainly shut down US operations at the base and put the officers under "house arrest."
It is a joint base, but the Turks provide all perimeter security and control access on / off the base. Turkish security, while we were stationed there, stayed away from American property on the joint base, but I could imagine the Turks rescinding that agreement, and start patrolling US non-military property: military housing, civilian housing, base exchange (the "department store"); and, the commissary (the "grocery store") and all recreational facilities, gas station, etc. If so, they could easily enforce "house arrest": threatening to take into custody any military officer seen in public.
When things get this tense, it is not unusual for the US military to evacuate all non-military members and non-essential personnel, sending them back home (generally to the US) or back to Europe. Family members are generally the first to leave.
I don't know where that stands now.
It will be interesting which happens first:
- Trump orders all US operations at Incirlik Air Base to cease; or,
- Erdogan orders all non-NATO operations at Incirlik Air Base to cease.
On another note, price of gasoline must be soaring in Turkey:
The Turkey "president" has appealed to his citizens to support the Turkish lira by exchanging all their foreign currency; and, their gold for Turkish lira. Based on what I saw / learned while serving in Turkey those two years, I can guarantee you just the opposite is happening. Turks, from the poorest on the street to the richest oligarchs are dumping their lira as fast as they can, first buying gold which is sold in shops throughout Turkey, just as hamburgers and French fries are sold in every neighborhood in the US. And, for "spending money," if it's not gold, they are trading their lira for EUs and US dollars.
Zero Hedge comments:
ReplyDeleteAs a reminder, Incirlik is a central hub for US air power in the region and the resting place of a few dozen B-61 nuclear gravity bombs with adjustable yields. Though the bombs are securely confined to the US-controlled side of the base, regularly maintained and looked after, and at little risk of falling into enemy hands, experts have long questioned the wisdom of holding US nuclear weapons in Turkey.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-10/turkish-lawyers-want-raid-incirlik-air-base-arrest-us-troops-terrorist-ties
A google search also reveals that the Turks have considered "inviting" the Russian air force to use the base.
DeleteTurkey has learned to play the game well -- siding with NATO or siding with Russia in a very "bad neighborhood" as they say.
My hunch: the Pentagon is working overtime on Plans B, C, D, E, and F in case the US "loses" Incirlik Air Base.