Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Distillate Stocks Low As Heating Season Arrives -- November 14, 2017

Director's Cut scheduled to be released this afternoon. Link here.

Talking their book: OPEC points to larger 2018 oil supply deficit as market tightens. Reuters 

Reality: oil falls for a third day, knocked by rising US output. Bloomberg.

Cove Point update: FERC okays Cove Point LNG test cargoes

Boom!: China's natural gas demand to triple by 2040 -- IEA.

Hunch, 2040 headline: NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, IV, signs bill extending the ban on fracking in NY state. Pennsylvania reports another huge budget surplus on sales of natural gas.

Official: Venezuela in default. We should start seeing more stories on Russia, China buying Venezuela assets.

China oil imports to reach 15.5 million bopd in 2040-- IEA.
Oil will still remain the backbone of China's transport fuel demand till 2030, growing by 3.3% per year on average, but its share will fall to just above three-quarters, from nearly 90% today, the IEA said. The remaining 25% of transport fuels will be biofuels, natural gas and electricity.

The IEA said that China would become the world's largest oil consumer by the early 2030s, overtaking the US, and touch 15.5 million b/d in 2040. But the slowdown means that India will become the largest source of global oil demand growth from around 2025.
Returning home: President Trump negotiates return of UCLA hoodlums. No link; story everywhere. Original story here.

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today --
  • 33535, SI/NC, MRO, Arkin 44-12TFH, Bailey, no production data,
  • 31851, 1,196, Whiting, 3J Trust 34-8-2P, Bell, Three Forks, 45 stages 6.4 million lbs, t5/17; cum 98K 9/17;
  • 26975, 856, Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 44-11 2B, Willow Creek, 50 stages; 10 million lbs; t517; cum 103K 9/17;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs543864186185

RBN Energy: where did our distillate go? Stocks low as heating oil season arrives. Anyone following the weekly EIA petroleum report have probably asked the same question. Great post today by RBN Energy.
U.S. inventories of distillate — especially ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) and heating oil — are at their lowest pre-winter level in three years after falling during the summer months for the first time since inventory records started being measured in 1982.
Rising diesel exports are one culprit; another is the shutdown of a number of Gulf Coast refineries during and immediately after Hurricane Harvey.
The good news is that distillate prices have been increasing, as have the margins for refining crude oil into distillate — both encouraging refineries to ramp up their diesel/heating oil production. Today, we look at recent developments in the distillate market and what they may mean for diesel and heating oil prices this winter.
ISO New England link here. Currently at $65/Mwh and surging.

Cold front to hit Texas this weekend.

Coin show in Grapevine, TX, this weekend, also.

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