Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Oh-Oh! API Reports That US Crude Oil Inventories Rose A Whopping 6.513 Million Bbls -- November 14, 207

Earlier today I had this "headline": Tea Leaves Suggest US Crude Oil Inventories Are Rising -- November 14, 2017 -- The Market And Energy Page, T+297. I suggested that when I saw WTI drop more than 2% in price.

Here are the API numbers: US crude oil inventories were forecast to fall 2.2 million bbls; in fact, according to API data released late this afternoon, US crude oil inventories ROSE 6.513 million bbls.

I use EIA data, not API data, to calculate the time it will take to "re-balance" (supply/demand).  I have been tracking this data to "re-balance" for 28 weeks. In that time, we have never had a number greater than 6 million bbls in build. See EIA data here.

Worse, the swing (forecast of minus 2.2 to plus 6.513) equals a net 8.713 million bbls -- in other words, according to the API, there are 8.713 million bbls of crude oil MORE than what was forecast.

If this data holds up in the EIA data, it is clear that the Red Queen has not fallen off her treadmill.

Earlier today, the talking heads said the 2% drop in the price of WTI was the news that Chinese demand for crude oil might be dropping. Nope: the 2% drop in the price of WTI was due to the "rumors" of what the API was going to report.

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