Saturday, April 14, 2012

Whiting's New Corporate Presentation -- April, 2012

Link here to WLL website to access the corporate presentation. It loads as a PDF on a non-mobile PC, but comes up so much nice on a mobile device like the iPad.

Things that caught my eye as I "rushed" through the presentation with NASCAR on in the background:

Some numbers rounded.

4Q11 production: 70,000 boepd

Production in Michigan exceeds production along the Gulf Coast (for WLL):
  • Michigan: 3,000 boepd
  • Gulf Coast: 2,000 boepd
  • Rocky Mountains: 45 boedp
Prospects
  • Prospects in the Bakken remain the same (dual targets = middle Bakken and Pronghorn Sand/Upper Three Forks
  • Starbuck (MT) (dual targets)
  • Missouri Breaks (MT) (dual targets)
  • Big Island (SW ND) (outside the Bakken) (multiple objectives)
  • Lewis & Clark (SW ND) (single target: Pronghorn Sand/Upper Three Forks)
  • Pronghorn (SW ND) (single target)
  • Hidden Bench (ND) (dual targets)
  • Tarpon (ND) (dual targets)
  • Cassandra (ND) (dual targets)
  • Sanish and Parshall (ND) (dual target)
  • Go to the presentation to see the relative thickness of the various plays
"Typical" wells: EURs, payout; CAPEX (I may be misreading this slide; if interested, look at it)
Sanish Field, "typical" Bakken well
  • wells with 950,000 bbls EUR: CAPEX $6 million; payout in 0.5 to 0.6 years
  • wells with 450,000 bbls EUR: CAPEX $6 million; payout in 0.9 to 1.4 years
Sanish Field, "typical" Three Forks well
  • wells with 400,000 bbls EUR; CAPEX $6 million; payout in 1.1 to 1.8 years
Typical Non-Sanish Field Bakken or Pronghorn/Three Forks well
  • wells with 600,000 EUR: CAPEX $7 million; payout in 0.8 to 0.9 year
  • wells with 350,000 EUR: CAPEX $7 million: payout in 1.9 to 2.3 years
Slide 18: Whiting leads all other Bakken operators in 6-month average production/well; selected examples:
  • Whiting: 91 mboe 10 (avg first six months)
  • BEXP: 85
  • ERF: 80
  • Slawson: 75
  • KOG: 67
  • CLR: 61
  • OAS: 57
Slide 26: Margins (again, numbers rounded)
  • 2005: $45
  • 2006: $50
  • 2007: $55
  • 2008: $70
  • 2009: $45
  • 2010: $60
  • 2011: $75 (actual: $73.88)
From all of the above, what gets my attention?
  • Whiting leads ALL operators in 6-month production per well (average)
  • 2011 margins at record levels (>$70/bbl)
  • EURs approaching 1million bbls (when I first started blogging about the Bakken, EURs were around 400,000 bbls, if I recall correctly); other operators (I believe KOG) also report EURs of 1 million
Of those three, what gets my attention?
  • 2011 margins at record levels despite takeaway obstacles reducing profit/bbl

Disclaimer: I may have misread or misinterpreted some of the slides but that's what I saw when I went through the presentation pretty quickly; if something doesn't look right, go to the linked presentation; typos may be present; numbers rounded.

2 comments:

  1. Personally I've found Whiting to be the best of the Bakken oil stocks on a sheer valuation basis. They have been one of the top producers due largely to their Sanish field. They also have multiple other prospects which are beginning to be proven as very productive.

    As an investor when you crunch the numbers your cost per Bakken acre for WLL shares is still well below all the other companies in the play. In some cases almost half the cost. Even with this below average cost per acre, you are getting all of Whiting's other operations (MI, TX, etc...) essentially 'for free'.

    Nobody should buy any shares based on my comment. Do your own due diligence. Yet in my opinion, compared to the other operators shares of WLL is very inexpensive.

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    Replies
    1. I agree 100%.

      I often refer to the Sanish as Whiting's "cash cow."

      I see Whiting generating cash flow from the Sanish, while sorting out things in their "southern ops" of North Dakota. If the entire Williston Basin/Bakken Pool is as good as Harold Hamm opines, Whiting is going to do very, very well.

      (Again, assuming politics, EPA, etc., do not derail everything.)

      Disclaimer: idle chatter only; this is not an investment site. If investing, there is a wealth of information on the web.

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